Thursday, July 30, 2015

Save-the-Date: ETP Forum-NYC 11/20/15

Please save the date – 11/20/15!

The Expert Series recently announced that ETF Global will again Chair the upcoming Fall 2015 ETP Forum–NYC on Friday, November 20th at The New York Athletic Club!

This one day symposium convenes widely recognized experts in Exchange-Traded-Funds and some of the brightest minds in Capital Management. Video footage from previous ETP Forums, including the most recent Forum that was held on 4/1/15 and drew over 500 financial professional attendees, is available on Expert Series TV

Our partners at The Expert Series will be launching their new website next week along with a dedicated event site at www.etpforum.org  All information will be available at both locations.  Next week, please visit them for all event information and in the interim please save the date for 11/20/15.

We look forward to seeing you there and thank you for reading ETF Global Perspectives!

Monday, July 27, 2015

Outside the Box

Investor fears got the better of them last week as the relative quiet gave them time to ruminate both on second quarter earnings and on whether the economy is strong enough to support its first rate hike in seven years.  The results were predictable as the markets began moving lower on profit taking following Monday’s attempt at a new high.  Thursday’s unemployment report, whose headline figure of 255k claims came in at the lowest level in 41 ½ years, sparked concerns that the July employment report could add more fuel to the rate hike fire.  Investors are going to be fighting that battle all week - first with the FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday followed by Thursday's advance release on GDP growth in the second quarter - and we’re noticing some investors already positioning themselves for the shape of things to come.

It would be hard to find a bull market that better exemplifies the old adage, “when the Fed sneezes, the market catches a cold” as investors continue to put all their hopes and dreams on the FOMC deciding that low inflation rather than low rates is the bigger threat to the economy.  Careful readers of those articles talking about how long it’s been since the last 10% correction will note that the dry spell happens to coincide with the introduction of Operation Twist followed seamlessly by QE3 and its supposedly unlimited nature.  Ben Bernanke’s promise to do whatever it takes to spark inflation (or at least to keep the cost of capital absurdly low) gave investors the shot in the arm they needed to buy equities with both hands and the results speak for themselves.  And we’re not talking about the 65% rally by the S&P 500 from the start of Operation Twist to the end of QE3 on 10/29/14 that’s taken us to all new highs; the latest J.P. Morgan quarterly guide to the market shows that seven of the ten sectors of the market are trading above their 15 average forward P/E ratio while fans of Schiller’s CAPE ratio become more apoplectic with every passing day. But the QE crutch was taken away last fall and is it any wonder that since then the S&P 500 has advanced a mere 4.9% with increasing volatility?

For some, the time for waiting is over as they prepare themselves for the possibility that investors don’t take the first Fed rate hike with a grain of salt.  One of the strongest performers among bond funds last week was former investor favorite turned 2015 whipping boy iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) whose 2.25% gain last week sharply contrasted with the S&P 500’s 2.2% loss. Those who think the turnaround might be a one-off event should take note that TLT’s negative momentum has been slowing since the start of June as the economic outlook at home improved while global uncertainty waned and momentum wasn’t the only thing beginning to reverse as the fund pulled in over $836 million in new assets in the trailing one month period equivalent to a 20% inflow. While that inflow into long duration debt might see counter-intuitive on the cusp of a rate hike, there is a certain cold logic to play.  When rates are in the low single digits, there typically is a strong negative correlation between equities and bond yields so the smart money is wagering in the event of a rate-hike induced correction, Treasuries will see strong inflows on the flight to safety that could outweigh the impact of a potential rate hike.  TLT wasn’t the only fund to see inflows as the interest-rate sensitive REIT sector experienced strong relative outperformance as both the Vanguard REIT Index Fund (VNQ) and iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF (IYR) saw positive inflows for the week.

Those strong inflows got us curious about how some of the other funds favorited by investors during the long “will they hike or won’t they” phase have fared recently. The latest Commitment of Traders report showed an increase in negative Euro and Yen positions seemingly confirmed by positive inflows into the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) and slight outflows from the Currency Shares Euro Trust (FXE) but the strength of the move has us in doubt.  UUP managed a strong open on Monday before selling pressure close to recent resistance at $25.68 pushed the fund lower where it only just managed to close off the lows of the week and given that FXE is simply the negative of UUP, it had a weak Monday followed by small rally into Thursday before losing ground on Friday.

Treasuries weren’t the only unloved asset class to feel some love on Friday as the long derided gold miners finally caught a break with the Market Vectors Gold Miners fund (GDX) gained 3.3% on the day as investors found solace in the one-time refuge from equity market volatility. Outflows continued although at a slower rate while the fund’s behavioral scores have steadily improved off historic lows, but one sign that the miners might be due for a turnaround is focusing on the smart money. The latest COT report offered up the bravest investors another golden opportunity by showing that traders now report net short positions in gold for the first time since 2006, whether from anticipation of future rate hikes or simple capitulation given the latest vicious correction that began in May remains to be seen.  It’s way too soon to declare a turnaround is imminent, but every dog does have its day.

Thank you for reading ETF Global Perspectives!


This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.  Any opinions expressed herein are given in good faith, are subject to change without notice, and are only correct as of the stated date of their issue.  Prices, values, or income from any securities or investments mentioned in this report may fall against the interests of the investor and the investor may get back less than the amount invested.  Where an investment is described as being likely to yield income, please note that the amount of income that the investor will receive from such an investment may fluctuate.  Where an investment or security is denominated in a different currency to the investor's currency of reference, changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of or from that investment to the investor.

Assumptions, opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice.  ETF Global LLC (“ETFG”) and its affiliates and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (collectively ETFG Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, adequacy or timeliness of any information, including ratings and rankings and are not responsible for errors and omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information and ETFG Parties shall have no liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions therein, regardless of the cause, or for the results obtained from the use of such information. In no event shall ETFG Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs) in connection with any use of the information contained in this document even if advised of the possibility of such damages.
  
ETFG ratings and rankings are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions. ETFG ratings and rankings should not be relied on when making any investment or other business decision. ETFG’s opinions and analyses do not address the suitability of any security.  ETFG does not act as a fiduciary or an investment advisor.  While ETFG has obtained information from sources they believe to be reliable, ETFG does not perform an audit or undertake any duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives.

Thursday, July 23, 2015

New-to-Market: OUSA

New-to-Market - This blog series highlights ETFs that have recently gone public and reflect those strategies currently most in demand by investors. While ETFs are not eligible for ETFG Risk Ratings until traded for 3 months and ETFG Reward Ratings for 12 months, our goal is to highlight the most cutting-edge investment strategies that have recently embraced the ETF structure – we hope you enjoy this special series of posts.

One thing that investors don’t lack in this brave new world of exchange traded products are options to express whatever investment whim they might have from the mundane sector funds to the far more sublime market neutral, anti-beta and volatility hedged.  And while investment advisors are overwhelmed with literature touting the benefits of the latest esoteric back-tested strategies, what is there for those investors who come to the market looking for a core fund to help them avoid becoming just another statistic in the annual Dalbar study?  Thanks to the host of ABC’s Shark Tank and a regular CNBC Contributor Kevin O’Leary, they might just have the answer they were looking for in the recently launched O’Shares FTSE U.S. Quality Dividend ETF (OUSA) which promises to unlock the same investment wisdom used by America’s wealthiest families for generations to help preserve and grow their wealth.

At first glance, OUSA looks like another product of the times where investors have become devoted to the art of factor investing and where the investment strategy of a fund is clearly spelt out in the name.  Some investors could see OUSA as just another dividend fund for retirees with a focus on providing income instead of capital gains while others will think it the latest offering trying to take advantage of the low volatility phenomenon.  But those who take the time to research the fund will discover a very different beast indeed and that the fund is perhaps easiest to define by telling you what it’s trying not to avoid.  Many of the exotically named ETF strategies being presented to investors these days have at their core a very simple investment strategy which can often times have very unintended consequences as many investors in funds focused on low volatility or high dividend yields have unfortunately discovered.

The PowerShares S&P 500 Low Volatility Portfolio (SPLV) and the Vanguard High Dividend Fund (VYM) have underperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 500 and 300 bps respectively on an annualized basis over the last three years for the much the same reason; by buying “seemingly” cheap stocks concentrated in the consumer staples, industrials and financial sectors, they fell into a value trap and were left behind by their faster-growing brethren.  And while SPLV might eventually outperform thanks to its 40% allocation to REIT’s and insurance stocks, investing in these two strategies requires investors and their advisors to be paying close attention to market developments to time their buys and sells.

OUSA was designed with a very specific clientele in mind, namely investors who want to invest like a family office but without having to hire their own staff of CFAs.  Benchmarked to a mouthful of an index, the FTSE U.S. Qual/Vol/Yield Factor 5% Capped Index, the manager screens their universe of large and mid-cap U.S. stocks around three different criteria to avoid buying any unintentional factor exposures.  The first criteria are earnings quality with a focus on low accruals and leverage matched with a high return on assets and asset turnover to help isolate fast growers relying on booking next quarter’s revenue today from more consistent growers.  To help avoid steeper drawdowns, the manage next screens for lower volatility using five years of weekly standard deviation of returns and then finally on the natural log of the trailing twelve month dividend yield to avoid buying into a “dividend trap” of seemingly high dividend yield stocks as investors abandon them due to declining business conditions.  No single stock is allowed to be more than 5% of the portfolio and the fund is reconstituted annually/rebalanced quarterly which is why the fund’s expense ratio of 48 bps is higher than the more streamlined strategies like VYM’s 10bps or SPLV’s 25.

What that three pronged approach gets you is a very diverse portfolio of 142 names with a distinctly megacap value focus and an average dividend yield above 3%.  No one sector currently makes up more than 20% of the portfolio and looking through the top holdings (only 38% of the portfolio) you can see the focus on earnings growth is more than a market slogan.  Names like Johnson & Johnson and Exxon Mobil don’t get the heart racing the in the same way as Netflix, but what they do have is a record of above average income growth, stronger margins and debt-to-equity ratio’s below their sector average.  OUSA isn’t some stealth utilities or REIT fund; healthcare names like Merck and Eli Lilly have a strong presence.  With only a full week of trading under its belt, it’s too soon to tell what with a long-term performance of the fund might be like, but the fund was designed to attract investors who believe that the only way to earn those high single digit returns is to stay invested with the market and not by timing it and cutting volatility is the key to keeping clients in the fund for the long haul.  For those willing to put their faith in back tested results, they might want to visit the FTSE/Russell website where their highlights show a strategy that can potentially deliver an attractive risk/reward tradeoff over the last ten years with nearly market performance at 80% of market volatility.

With domestic equities struggling in anticipation of the first rate hike later this year, now might be the time for investors to ask themselves where they want to want to place their trust.  On the one hand they can invest in the brave new world of smart beta or factor strategies or they can take choose a strategy that’s built with the wisdom that’s guided America’s wealthy for generations.  Only time will tell which has true staying power.  

Thank you for reading ETF Global Perspectives!


*Please note that ETFs are eligible for ETFG Red Diamond Risk Ratings following 3 months of trading and ETFG Green Diamond Reward Ratings following 12 months of trading.


This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.  Any opinions expressed herein are given in good faith, are subject to change without notice, and are only correct as of the stated date of their issue.  Prices, values, or income from any securities or investments mentioned in this report may fall against the interests of the investor and the investor may get back less than the amount invested.  Where an investment is described as being likely to yield income, please note that the amount of income that the investor will receive from such an investment may fluctuate.  Where an investment or security is denominated in a different currency to the investor's currency of reference, changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of or from that investment to the investor.

Monday, July 20, 2015

Leaning into the Wind

Calm was seemingly restored last week as Greece embraced a punishing deal offered by the EU while Chinese authorities reversed the A-share meltdown with a capital infusion estimated at over $200 billion dollars and the implied threat of capital punishment for anyone daring to sell short. Against a backdrop of positive economic releases and a pullback from catastrophe overseas, a very unsubtle shift has begun within U.S. Markets as investors begin to embrace the likelihood of rate hikes coming sooner rather than later.  Everything old was new again as the sectors that seemingly benefited from a pullback in rate expectations lost ground to the old favorites like biotechnology and healthcare.  Reviewing our ETFG Quant Screeners and Fund Flows, capital is flowing in different directions and has us curious whether too many investors are leaning into one side of the trade.

Technology and biotech stocks delivered strong gains for the week while first up in the crosshairs were the REITs whose two recent weeks of outperformance were due to end if for no other reason than the REITs haven’t outperformed the S&P 500 for longer than two weeks at any time in 2015. What better reflection can we have of a bifurcated market than when rate hikes are back on the menu, REITs are out and financials are back in vogue although the action has shifted from the regional banks.  Charts comparing the relative momentum of the Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) to the SPDR KBW Bank Index ETF (KBE) bear a striking resemblance to those of the China A-share funds; XLF outperformed delivered nearly 5.5x the performance of KBE in 2014 and given it all up in 2015 so a few of our timing friends will say that the megabanks like Bank of America and Citigroup were overdue for a strong push.

One segment that REALLY isn’t taking the news of rising rates as soon as September all that well is the “hard asset” sphere where the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX’s) 4.48% loss on Friday was the coup de grace of a very rough week.  Pain and suffering isn’t anything new to the gold bugs, GDX has been stuck in a shallow downtrend channel since the latter half of 2013 but last week’s nearly 8% loss pushed the fund below the lower boundary of that channel and into oversold territory on a long-term basis. According to our ETFG Quant screener, poor GDX still makes our list of 100 “worst scoring” ETFs based on behavioral factors but if we focus on just poor price momentum, GDX comes in at #33 where it’s within spitting distance of the iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF (RING) and Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM).  Just how bad is bad you ask?  If you reorder our lists based on just short-term or intermediate term price momentum, these funds are trading in the lowest half of the lowest one percentile in their entire history. While some investors feel there’s never a bad price for gold, $100 million in assets fled GDX last week as it’s year-to-date dipped into negative double digits….again.

Fortunately for those brave investors out there who are thinking about staking out a fund for after the great rate hike apocalypse and the potential breaking of the U.S. dollar, there are plenty of slightly less volatile ways to play that theme.  The rest of our bottom 100 ETFG behavioral funds are a grab bag of energy and natural resources funds or those countries that rely heavily on them for their economic growth.  We talked a lot about these funds and the negative exposure to the U.S. dollar they offered in our February 23rd post, “Dollar Doldrums” and from then to the end of April many delivered solid (read positive) performance until the dollar found its feet thanks to the crisis in Greece.  One of those strong performers was the First Trust Canada AlphaDEX Fund (FCAN), delivering a strong 6.2% gain before the on-going collapse in oil prices delivered a solid kick in the teeth to the energy dependent Canadian economy now teetering on the brink of recession.  With the situation in Iran threatening to add even more to the already overflowing supply of oil, FCAN has been one of the biggest losers in the sentiment race with nearly 60% of the funds’ assets leaving in July while the momentum scores hover close to record lows.  If you’re adventurous enough to take a trip north of the border, FCAN might be a less volatile way to wager on strong commodities (and a weaker dollar) than committing to the gold bug cause.

Thank you for reading ETF Global Perspectives!

Thursday, July 16, 2015

ETFG Dynamic Model Portfolio Program

Just a quick post to alert everyone that the ETFG Dynamic Model Portfolios (4 Base Portfolios and 8 “Tilts”) rebalanced for the 3rd quarter last week - occurs on the 1st Monday of each calendar quarter.

Each ETFG Dynamic Model Portfolio is comprised of the top ETFs as ranked by the ETFG Quant Model and the firm’s Research Policy Committee and reselected each quarter. The eligible selection pool for the Model Portfolios is the universe of U.S. Listed ETFs and thereby represents the broadest range of industry groups, sectors and geographic regions.



All information including Selection Process, Components, Asset Class, Geographic and Focus exposure for the ETFG Model Portfolio Program is available under the "Model Portfolios" tab at www.etfg.com and can be actively tracked and downloaded by signing up for the 21 Day Free Trial

Thank you for reading ETF Global Perspectives!

Monday, July 13, 2015

Same Planet Different Worlds

Investors were so captivated by market dramas unfolding on opposite ends of the globe that even a three hour trade halt on the NYSE could barely tear their attention away from their Bloomberg terminals.  Thanks to the desperate measures of the Chinese government and the capitulation of the Greek’s, a measure of calm was restored to the markets the second half of the week although volatility is sure to be on everyone’s mind when the markets open Monday morning.  Checking in on the ETFG Quant screeners and fund flows reports, we noticed that last week’s volatility has already engineered a profound shift in the market dynamics with European and Chinese equity funds surging to the top of buy lists although we’re left to wonder which rally has staying power.

Our regular readers know that we at ETFG aren’t averse to taking a victory lap now and again but even we were surprised by how quickly our list of behavioral top scorers was dominated by Europe equity funds offering exposure to some of the most “at-risk” nations within the Eurozone.  Last week we discussed the trend among top-performing European funds of reducing volatility by overweighting the “frost belt” of Swiss, Danish and UK equities and while the possibility of avoiding a Grexit is still a long-shot, you don’t need a chart to know that when the risk is “on”, the last shall be first. German equity funds continue to be well-represented but a major surge in momentum pushed the iShares MSCI Italy Fund (EWI) to the #4 spot when two weeks ago it wasn’t even in the top 100 while the iShares MSCI Spain (EWP) and iShares MSCI Ireland Fund (EIRL) are tied for the 17th position with identical scores although they got there by different routes.  Strong price momentum throughout 2015 keeps Ireland high on our lists even though the fund underperformed broader unhedged European equity funds last week while Spain’s been rocketing to the top thanks to higher volatility and put/call ratio.  But while the funds have been trading well relative to their historical performance, the amount of new capital finding their way to the funds is relatively small with EWI’s asset base increasing a mere .7% last week and only slightly ahead of massive investor favorite, the WisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity Fund (HEDJ), which saw a .6% increase.

A few intrepid investors have been willing to embrace risk by taking on exposure to country-specific fund yet most of the investment masses haven’t found the courage to do more than make $2 bets as they continue to stay with large, currency hedged funds much as they have throughout the year. The iShares MSCI EMU Index (EZU) remains the go-to fund for those seeking unhedged exposure to events in the EU but even with the Euro up nearly 5% since the lows of April 13th, the (HEDJ) continues to hold the top-spot in every 2015 fund flows report with over $14.4 billion in new assets in 2015 which includes a massive $194 million in just the last week to EZU’s paltry $25 million. Investors are understandably nervous with so much on their minds; first the future of the common currency as Greek flirts with disaster and then Chairwoman Yellen reiterates her belief that the U.S. economy is strong enough to withstand a rate hike in 2015, but they could be ignoring the Euro at their own peril.  Since the Euro started gaining ground in April it’s made a series of higher lows (and we’ll admit, lower highs) but the effect of the performance of these two funds is profound.  While HEDJ is off nearly 6.3% from 4/13 through Friday, that marks a major improvement with the fund gaining 4% in the last two days.  But EZU is down .23% and while the volatility for EZU holders is mind-numbing, the performance boost more than made up for it with the fund gaining 7.4% in just 2 days.

But for those who seek out volatility, EZU can’t hold a candle to the #5 fund on our list, the Deutsche X-trackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF (ASHR) whose 1.96% return for last week was only made possible by a stunning 27.6% advance on Thursday and Friday.  Like most investment professionals, we make our living by looking for divergences and while two other China funds make the top 10 with the Market Vectors China AMC A-Share ETF (PEK) at #3 and the Deutsche X-trackers Harvest CSI 500 China-A Shares Small Cap ETF (ASHS) coming at #7, they made their way onto our lists by a very different means than the Italian or Spanish funds.  Where those country-specific funds made the list thanks to strong price momentum backed by small inflows, the China A-shares owe their presence largely to what we consider to be “sentiment” related factors such as high short interest or implied volatility.  If you were to use our ETFG Quant tables to reorder the universe of ranked funds based on sentiment scores, 6 of the top 10 funds would be China funds including Hong Kong mainstay the iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) whose weak price momentum is more than made up for by almost record high volatility and put/call scores.  The divergences are furthered by the fact that nearly all of the top China funds recorded small outflows for the week as investors debate whether the recent rally by government decree can stand on its own once the suspended half of the market comes back.

Thank you for reading ETF Global Perspectives!

Monday, July 6, 2015

After the Bloodshed

As Greeks go to the polls on Sunday for their first plebiscite since the end of their last military dictatorship, investors around the globe feel like they’re trapped in their own personal version of “Groundhog Day” being forever forced to repeat the cycle of hope, greed and fear in regular six month installments.  Small wonder then those more active investors have chosen to separate themselves from the herd and seek out opportunities in funds away from the common run and have done very well for it in 2015.  But even amid the chaos last week, there were noticeable shifts in some of 2015’s major trends, not that you could tell from the strong, positive performance (there wasn’t any) but by who recovered more of their losses.  And while there might be too much blood in the streets for some investors, others might do well to start thinking about whether they should be buying instead of hunkering down.

By the Thursday’s close, intrepid investors helped GREK recover half of Monday’s losses and while there’s much to be said for buying when there’s blood in the streets, the smart money this year has been buying outside the benchmark whenever possible and generally following a specific formula in the process.  As you would expect, fiscal discipline was all the rage among active investors with disciplined nations both within the Eurozone (Ireland) and with their own currency pegged to the Euro (Denmark) being among the biggest winners, although Switzerland continues to be a must have for many investor portfolios.  Among actively managed European equity mutual funds (our ETFG scanner shows no actively managed ETF’s) Henderson European Focus is a good example of this trend with twice the category average allocation to Denmark and Ireland and more than twice the performance of the category in return.  Looking at the three ETF’s representing these single markets: EIRL (Ireland), EDEN (Denmark) and EWL (Switzerland) have all shown a clear trend of outperformance versus a broad Euro-area fund like the iShares MSCI EMU Index (EZU) and all had half the drop of EZU last week.  But the charts of Switzerland have been confusing as the nation was forced to unpeg its currency against the Euro early in 2015, giving opportunistic market timers an opening.

So if financial stability was rewarded for much of 2015 (and especially last week) you can only imagine how the markets treated those more profligate countries following the Greek default.  After leading the broader European funds for much of 2015, the iShares MSCI Italy Fund (EWI) underperformed for the week, down over 5% compared to a 4.66% loss for EZU although at least it wasn’t alone with Spain (EWP) joining it in the down more than 5% club.  But Italy and Spain have more in common this year than just bad performance last week; a quick scan of the leading European or Foreign Large Blend equity funds shows that one common characteristic of 2015’s top performers is a serious underweight towards these two nations in favor of those above but most importantly the United Kingdom.  Henderson European Focus has nearly 37% in the UK compared to 27.5% for the rest of the European-oriented open-ended sector and what helps keep the fund in the top ranks is the same thing pushing the First Trust United Kingdom AlphaDex Fund (FKU) into our behavioral top performers, a focus on smaller-cap names with FKU’s average market cap around $8.5 billion.  FKU also has a nearly 20% weighting towards real estate names and no global market is hotter right now than London’s property market.  For those investors not afraid of buying in the chaos, you might consider planning on a return to “normal” in Europe that could spell better times ahead for those overlooked markets in Southern Europe.

Rotation isn’t a theme that only applies to Europe as here at home a subtle shift of a different kind has been coming over investor portfolios these last several weeks as the severe underperformance by REIT’s begins to abate.  Bank and insurance funds have been climbing the ETFG Behavioral Quant lists (six are now in the top fifty) but success can be a double edged sword and made the funds vulnerable as investors sought to lock-in gains on Greek woes.  That could lead some to put cash to work in the most unloved of sectors but there’s more to the REIT resurgence than simple sector rotation.  Starting with the technical outlook, the iShares Real Estate fund has now outperformed the broader market for three of the last four weeks as the fund’s downward momentum seems to be braking as it closes in on a prior resistance point from last fall at $72.  And while the trailing P/E is still one of the highest among the different sectors of the market right now, REIT’s have a more attractive fundamental role for investors right now as part of the anti-Fed investment strategy.  With each disappointing economic release, prior revision or negative report from China or Greece; investors gain more confidence that a September rate hike might be on hold leading them to seek out the sectors hardest hit by anticipation of future rate hikes.

Thank you for reading ETF Global Perspectives!