Thursday, April 28, 2016

Winners - Spring 2016 ETF Global® Portfolio Challenge!

Five Collegians Take Home Top Honors in the Spring 2016 ETF Global® Portfolio Challenge!

After three months of competition, the Spring 2016 ETF Global® Portfolio Challenge came to a close on Monday, April 25th. This semester-long event added to the momentum of the inaugural Fall competition, drawing students from around the world at a broad range of universities. Five select students were able to separate themselves from the competition.

Please join us in congratulating the Top 5 winners of the Spring 2016 ETF Global® Portfolio Challenge!

Name
School/Year
Total Portfolio Return
Michelle Gu
University of Chicago
153.51%
Alexander Parker
University of Texas at Austin
112.71%
Ramiro Diaz
University of Texas – Rio Grande Valley
93.49%
Chau Bui
Cal Fullerton
81.89%
Aaron Lidawer
University of Pennsylvania
72.77%

After a rocky start to the first quarter, these contestants aggressively positioned their portfolios to benefit from the sharp rebound in commodities and emerging markets. Our contestants amplified their portfolio returns by loading up on levered products – please note, next semester’s competition will place a limit on the use of levered products.

You can review the portfolio selections under the Leaderboard section of the Challenge's website at: www.etfportfoliochallenge.com

As the winners of this semester’s challenge, these students will be recognized at the ETF Global® Portfolio Challenge Awards Ceremony during the Fall 2016 ETP Forum conducted by The Expert Series.

Since its inception in the fall, the ETF Global® Portfolio Challenge has attracted students from six continents and over 130 schools. The global footprint of this competition underscores the wide-ranging appeal Exchange-Traded Funds have among millennials and emerging investors.  As millennials continue to increase their usage of ETFs, we encourage all college students to take advantage of this opportunity and learn about this fast-growing investment vehicle before they enter the marketplace.

The performance of our Spring 2016 contestants was thoroughly impressive, upholding the high standard set by our Fall 2015 participants. ETF Global is proud to support this initiative and play a part in the education of the next generation of investors.

Registration for the Fall 2016 competition opens on May 16th.  For more information and to sign-up for the Challenge, please visit:  www.etfportfoliochallenge.com

Monday, April 25, 2016

Cold Turkey Time?

It’s all commodities, all the time with every media outlet covering the commodity mania that’s swept over retail investors in China.  Our weekly Quant Movers Report shows that fever has been exported to America because while equity markets might have been relatively flat last week, a new speculative frenzy is leading to major changes in what drives the markets.  With another huge week of earnings releases on deck, will it last or is it time to stage an intervention?

We don’t rank commodity ETFs but the presence of three MLP funds in our weekly list of biggest behavioral quant gainers was something we haven’t seen in a while with the ETRACS Alerian MLP Infrastructure Index ETN (MLPI) leading the charge with an 86% gain.  Big swings by energy names are nothing new; our behavioral scores incorporate volatility and MLP funds are nothing but volatile (despite their original promises of slow and steady dividend payments) but what makes this interesting to us is the backdrop this move is set against.  This week will see energy sector titans like ExxonMobil and Chevron release their Q1 earnings and investors are braced for bad news; analysts are expecting a -110% change in sector earnings on a year-over-year basis as stabilizing oil prices should only help moderate losses until the fourth quarter when analysts are finally projecting the sector will return to profitability.  But along with stabilizing prices despite record product, even just being “less unprofitable” is enough for investors to go long (or at least to cover their shorts) and sent energy names soaring with Chevron, which is expected to report a loss for the first quarter, up 4.9% last week while the broader sector is now trading at a forward P/E multiple of 71x compared to 16.9x for the broader S&P 500.

Energy stocks weren’t the only ones to benefit despite the weak prospects, which brings us to Plan B in the case for hope over logic, specifically, the astounding momentum shift by financial stocks which have now outperformed the broader markets over the last two weeks with the SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) up over 11.4% during the last two weeks compared to a more modest 2.15% for the S&P 500. Some will argue that the strong performance was long overdue; KBE did underperform the S&P by over 1100 bps in the first quarter so who else would benefit the most from declining volatility and hope that the worst of the economic weakness is behind us?  Sounds nice but the only real problem with that is the last time bank stocks enjoyed such strong performance was last fall in the interlude between the Fed’s failure to hike in September and when it finally chose to do so in December.  Then investors could hope that rising rates would ease pressure on net-interest-margins but more importantly that we could get off the zero boundary with a series of minor rate hikes and encourage investors to stop hoarding cash and get their money back to work.  This time it’s nothing but hopes for wine and roses ahead with the awful first quarter behind us which makes the logic behind last fall’s big move seems almost quaint by comparison.  In the last two weeks nearly every major bank missed on revenue (but miraculously somehow beat earnings estimates), set aside more capital for future defaults in the energy sector while most of the “too big to fail” institutions had their living wills declared insufficient.

Investors on the whole are rewarding companies who beat earnings estimates while holding fire on those who miss, but someone apparently forgot to tell tech investors after Alphabet and Microsoft shares were pummeled last week.  It’s easy to understand why investors are in an unforgiving mood given that both Alphabet and Microsoft were trading at rich multiples precisely because they weren’t supposed to miss and it’s not like either company was offering a rich dividend yield to help tide investors over but if you think this was a one-time thing, think again.  Technology funds have been steadily losing momentum against the broader equity market since last December and noticeably so over the last three weeks.  In fact, the Technology Select Sector SPDR’s (XLK) aggregate price momentum score is the lowest of all the Select Sector Funds and largely because of those rich valuations.  It takes nerves of steel to short big-name tech stocks which eliminates one major catalyst to keep boosting them higher, along with stock buybacks which are increasingly short supply.  And with the markets just off their old highs, it’s easier to convince clients to put their “capital to work” in beaten down energy and financial names rather than high-flying tech stocks.

The real question is how will investors handle these volatile markets when 178 S&P 500 components report their earnings next week including former darling Apple whose stock has been under pressure as reports of waning iPhone sales continue to take their toll and the aforementioned Chevron who is expected to report negative earnings.

Who will investors continue to love?


Thank you for reading ETF Global Perspectives!


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_____________________________________________________________
Assumptions, opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice.  ETF Global LLC (“ETFG”) and its affiliates and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (collectively ETFG Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, adequacy or timeliness of any information, including ratings and rankings and are not responsible for errors and omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information and ETFG Parties shall have no liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions therein, regardless of the cause, or for the results obtained from the use of such information. ETFG PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, SUITABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE.  In no event shall ETFG Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs) in connection with any use of the information contained in this document even if advised of the possibility of such damages.

ETFG ratings and rankings are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions. ETFG ratings and rankings should not be relied on when making any investment or other business decision.  ETFG’s opinions and analyses do not address the suitability of any security.  ETFG does not act as a fiduciary or an investment advisor.  While ETFG has obtained information from sources they believe to be reliable, ETFG does not perform an audit or undertake any duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives.


This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.  Any opinions expressed herein are given in good faith, are subject to change without notice, and are only correct as of the stated date of their issue.  Prices, values, or income from any securities or investments mentioned in this report may fall against the interests of the investor and the investor may get back less than the amount invested.  Where an investment is described as being likely to yield income, please note that the amount of income that the investor will receive from such an investment may fluctuate.  Where an investment or security is denominated in a different currency to the investor's currency of reference, changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of or from that investment to the investor.

Monday, April 18, 2016

Through a Glass Darkly

At first glance, it seemed like just another week of more of the same even with the dollar finding its footing late in the week; equities were up with Brazil and gold miners leading the way higher but beneath the surface a major shift took place.  Investors were quick to overlook the falling revenue and the rejection of their living wills to push bank stocks higher on better than expected EPS but before rushing out to add more bank exposure to your portfolio, consider whether the latest rally is built to last or whether it’s just a castle in the sky.

Given the monumental shift in investor sentiment towards the megabanks last week, perhaps the biggest surprise (or not) in our weekly ETFG Quant Movers Report was the total absence of any banking or financial services funds despite their strong showing with the SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) up a strong 7.2%.  Even smaller banks benefited from the shift in sentiment with the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) up 7.3% while the more micro and small-cap focused First Trust NASDAQ ABA Community Bank Index Fund (QABA) delivered a nearly 6% return for the week.  For a fund or even sector to miss out on making the list of top movers after strongly outperforming the broader market, you’d expect to find them already holding down most of the top behavioral slots after a prolonged period of strong outperformance.  A prime example of that would be the iShares MSCI Brazil Capped Fund (EWZ) which was up over 7.64% last week but won’t appear in any of our “biggest gainers” lists because strong price momentum (not to mention high volatility and short interest) have kept it at the top of the Behavioral charts for weeks now.

It’s been a long time since strong performance and high momentum have plagued bank stocks as the Fed’s commitment to keeping rates low destroyed the prospects for higher net interest margins while high volatility sapped into their already anemic trading revenue.  The situation had gotten so dire that even after last week’s big rally, the Financial Sector Select SPDR Fund (XLF) still has the lowest price momentum score of any of the select sector funds, trailing even the hard pressed Utilities Select Sector Fund (XLU) whose technical score is 3x that of XLF.  And while you won’t find any of the bank funds on our “100 Funds with Lowest Behavioral Scores” list, you certainly won’t find any in the top 100 either...in fact, not one financial sector fund of any kind is found anywhere in the top 100.  That sort of weak performance usually means the list of biggest quant movers would be dominated by bank stock funds as investors rush to join a new trend but instead KBE, KRE and even XLF saw a continued (if somewhat diminished) outflow of assets last week as investors continued to divest from the sector.

The above has us wondering whether investors are finally starting to think about potential outcomes of the Fed’s policy instead of hoping that the rising tide will lift all boats.  While the mega-banks beat incredibly low analyst expectations thanks in part to improvements in trading revenues in March, the outlook for earnings growth going forward remains dim with lowered expectations for both revenue and earnings growth going forward. The Fed bares most of the responsibility thanks to its stated intention to only raise rates at a gradual pace is hardly reassuring and Janet Yellen’s extensive use of the word “uncertainty” in her speeches isn’t helping restore investor faith in the sector which surely explains why more interest rate sensitive small banks underperformed larger institutions last week.  Meanwhile even the most ardent bull will admit that the recent equity rally is likely to prove to be on a brief respite, especially given the political calendar that includes the upcoming Brexit vote and U.S. presidential elections.  And even beating those lowered expectations couldn’t completely obscure this week’s negative reports including that failure of five “too big to fail” institutions to deliver living wills to satisfy both the Federal Reserve and FDIC concerns about future bailouts.  Given that it’s an election year, we’ve probably only just heard the beginning of the diatribes from both sides of the aisle on the need to reduce the risk or even break-up the banks.

As long as equity sentiment remains positive, bank stocks should continue to feel the wind at their backs although the next news report to watch is the outcome of Sunday’s OPEC gathering in Doha to debate a production freeze although expectation for success are fairly low and the potential financial fallout is extreme.  According to the WSJ, the recent Chapter 11 filing by Goodrich brings the number of bankruptcy filings by energy firms since 2014 to 60 with over $20 billion in debt affected and even larger banks are beginning to feel the pinch. JP Morgan and BofA are feeling the pinch with both doubling the amount set aside to cover future loan losses in the energy sector with both banks now having reserves in the billions on expectations of even more pain to come.  So to recap, higher loan loss reserves and lower profit potential…no wonder investors are using this latest rally as a chance to further de-risk their own portfolios of bank stocks while they still can.

Thank you for reading ETF Global Perspectives!

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____________________________________________________________
Assumptions, opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice.  ETF Global LLC (“ETFG”) and its affiliates and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (collectively ETFG Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, adequacy or timeliness of any information, including ratings and rankings and are not responsible for errors and omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information and ETFG Parties shall have no liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions therein, regardless of the cause, or for the results obtained from the use of such information. ETFG PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, SUITABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE.  In no event shall ETFG Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs) in connection with any use of the information contained in this document even if advised of the possibility of such damages.

ETFG ratings and rankings are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions. ETFG ratings and rankings should not be relied on when making any investment or other business decision.  ETFG’s opinions and analyses do not address the suitability of any security.  ETFG does not act as a fiduciary or an investment advisor.  While ETFG has obtained information from sources they believe to be reliable, ETFG does not perform an audit or undertake any duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives.


This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.  Any opinions expressed herein are given in good faith, are subject to change without notice, and are only correct as of the stated date of their issue.  Prices, values, or income from any securities or investments mentioned in this report may fall against the interests of the investor and the investor may get back less than the amount invested.  Where an investment is described as being likely to yield income, please note that the amount of income that the investor will receive from such an investment may fluctuate.  Where an investment or security is denominated in a different currency to the investor's currency of reference, changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of or from that investment to the investor.

Friday, April 15, 2016

Cyber Investing Summit

Just a quick note to let everyone know that ETF Global is a Strategic Partner and will be supporting the upcoming Cyber Investing Summit at the New York Stock Exchange on May 3rd.

Our friends from this event have put together a terrific lineup of very knowledgeable speakers around a cutting-edge theme - below are all the details and we hope to see you there!

The Cyber Investing Summit is the first conference to focus on the investment trends and opportunities available within the 100+ billion cyber security sector.  The all-day event will bring together asset managers, investment advisors, fund managers, tech analysts, government experts, cyber security professionals, and the media.  A cocktail reception will be held on the floor of the exchange.

Panels include:  Cyber Security Investment Strategies and Diversification, Growth and Trends in the Cyber Security Sector, Implementation for the Financial Industry, Hack Attack Recovery, Spending and Demand in the Government and Military, Build vs Acquire: The Cost of Building New vs Acquiring Existing Technology and several others.

Richard Grasso, the former chairman and CEO of the New York Stock Exchange, will be delivering the afternoon keynote address. Suzanne E. Spaulding, Under Secretary of Homeland Security for the National Protection and Programs Directorate, and Dr. Phyllis Schneck, Deputy Under Secretary for Cybersecurity and Communications for the National Protection and Programs Directorate, will deliver the morning keynote address.

Cyber Investing Summit Details:

When:  May 3, 2016

Time:   8:30 AM - 8:00 PM

Where: New York Stock Exchange

Price:   $250 General Admission
 
Register Now

Additional information regarding the conference can be found at www.cyberinvestingsummit.com

Thursday, April 14, 2016

Thank You - Spring 2016 ETP Forum

We extend a heartfelt thank you to all of the wonderful Sponsors, Moderators, Panelists and those who attended the Spring 2016 ETP Forum last Wednesday at The New York Athletic Club - you all helped make the event another terrific experience!

We registered almost 400 attendees and the day was filled with terrific content and interaction which will all soon be up on Expert Series TV.  In the interim, for a comprehensive review of the day’s activities, please access the write-up from industry veteran Marc Caccavale at Review-Spring 2016 ETP Forum - Marc Caccavale

We look forward to the Fall 2016 ETP Forum in mid-November and will shortly be out with a save-the-date and all the details which will be available at www.etpforum.org

Thank you again and thank you for reading ETF Global Perspectives!

Tuesday, April 12, 2016

ETF Global® Portfolio Challenge Winners

Congratulations to the Top 5 winners of the Fall 2015 ETF Global® Portfolio Challenge who traveled to New York City to be honored during last week’s Spring 2016 ETP Forum at The New York Athletic Club!

Our top five performers' experience at the ETP Forum was highlighted by their award ceremony, floor tour of the New York Stock Exchange and their Interview with Bloomberg Radio.

The impressive performance of our contest winners also caught the attention of many of the event's attendees as two contestants received internship offers at top financial services firms!  In November, we look forward to presenting the current contest winners at the Fall ETP Forum.

As we enter the final three weeks of the current contest, here are the leaders:

Ranking
Name
School
Return
1
Michelle Gu
University of Chicago
112.61%
2
Alexander Parker
University of Texas at Austin
67.92%
3
Chau Bui
Cal Fullerton
51.81%
4
Ramiro Diaz
University of Texas – Rio Grande Valley
46.98%
5
Austin Maleki
University of Texas at Austin
43.57%
6
Matthew Cieutat
Georgia State University
40.38%
7
Yuri Kopylovski
University of Toronto
36.94%
8
Patrick Michael
St. Joseph’s University
32.64%
9
Jorge Garcia
University of Texas at Austin
32.30%
10
Aaron Lidawer
University of Pennsylvania
31.14%

As illustrated by the table above, our contest leaders are once again delivering spectacular portfolio returns!  Clearly, the outstanding performance of our Fall participants has been followed by an equally impressive showing by our Spring contestants.

Registration for the Fall 2016 competition will open in May.  For more information about the contest, please visit:  www.etfportfoliochallenge.com

Monday, April 11, 2016

Racing to the Bottom

After another week of high volatility and powerful currency movements (not to mention articles about active managers seriously underperforming the market) even the most hardened global macro manager will be sending out for cases of comfort food.  While it’s easy to fit their underperformance into the “passive is always better” narrative, even Jack Bogle might be tempted to cut his active colleagues some slack as the fallout from negative interest rates continues to take a toll on the markets with the S&P 500 experiencing three trade days last week with a greater than 1% movement not to mention the fact that real yields on the ten-year Treasury slipped into negative territory last week thanks to rising core inflation.

The truth is that investors are experiencing the consequences of past decisions and the fallout from the early experiments with negative interest rates.  At first glance it seemed so simple, negative rates would help spark inflation and with lower rates it would substantially reduce the true “cost of money” encouraging lending, spending and possibly curing male pattern baldness at the same time.  Instead it’s provoked a level of anxiety among professional money managers that even readers of Zero Hedge might consider excessive as the playbook that’s guided managers since 2011 has been officially tossed out the window.  But we’re wondering if in their haste to find something that works, they’re being a little too quick to get behind a new investment philosophy.

Some old rules still apply, starting with things that go up will eventually come back down as those who are long the dollar continue to discover their pain.  Not that many people are focusing on just the dollar although 2014’s big move in the PowerShares DB Dollar Bullish Index Fund (UUP) reminded more than a few people of John Murphy’s famous bump and run formation (or BARF) which usually ends in a major pullback and with UUP finally closing below $24.50, it seems like a trip back to $22.50 is in the offing.   But dollar weakness is old news and the Yen offers a much juicier story as more and more investors wager that the BoJ, like the ECB, can only make rates so negative which along with Janet Yellen’s uber-dovish stance helped send the CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) surging over 3.2% for the week on volume more than 4X what you would see in a normal week.  The WSJ and FT are full of articles talking about traders hoping that the Fed continues to deliver the pain to the dollar but short covering was a more likely motivating factor as Yellen’s uber-dovish stance continues to cut the legs out from under those who hoped the dollar could repeat 2014’s success story which would explain the 21% drop in FXY’s assets last week along with a 20% drop in outstanding shorts.

Whether short covering or not, the end result was the same with hedged Japanese equity funds seeing a major drop in their ETFG Behavioral scores last week led by the WisdomTree Japan Hedged Tech, Media and Telecom Fund (DXJT) with a 37% drop on a 4.55% loss for the week although the tiny fund did manage to recover a large chunk of its losses with a nearly 4% gain on Friday.   It’s been a wild ride for DXJT investors over the last year; the fund was hovering close to $30 in mid-2015 before pullback in the run-up to the Fed’s rate hike plans later in the year sent the fund plummeting to $20 in February and a similar story has affected nearly every fund in WisdomTree’s Hedged Japanese equity fund line-up.  Turns out DXJT wasn’t the leader in a new trend but the last fund to feel the burns as the fund is now down over 13% in 2016 although investors should consider themselves fortunate compared to holders of the WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund (DXJ) which you won’t find on our list of biggest weekly movers as its behavioral score has long since backed off its highs as over $3 billion has been pulled from the fund in the last three months while losing over 17% in 2016.

Volatility and international equities are going to be a running theme here but while the media is fascinated by Japan and the Yen, investor interest in Latin American equity funds continues to wane.  Our ETFG Behavioral Top Scorers continues to be dominated for yet another week by the iShares MSCI Brazil Fund (EWZ) whose 6.4% gain on Friday was almost enough to push the fund back into the black after four straight days of losses.  The fact EWZ continues to dominate the Behavioral Lists isn’t terribly exciting, in fact it’s probably to be expected after years of double digit losses made it one of the most despised international funds in the market (and boosted its implied volatility) while its recent success has led to a major climb in its short interest ratio which kept the fund in the top spot despite its inability to get above $27.  What’s more interesting to us is that while EWZ might still be gathering headlines, waning price momentum has knocked nearly every other Latin American equity fund off our Behavioral list with the iShares Latin American 40 ETF (ILF) having fallen all the way to the #94 spot while the iShares MSCI Chile Fund (ECH) has dropped off the list and the iShares MSCI All-Peru Fund (EPU) was one of this week’s biggest behavioral losers.  If Latin American funds were one of the early winners of the breaking of the buck, does their lackluster performance now signal a bigger shift is ahead.

Ultimately, every winner in this latest rally depends on a weaker dollar and while Janet Yellen has done everything she can to help, the ultimate burden will be on other central bankers to weaken their own currencies in the race to the bottom.  Given the willingness of the Bank of Japan to intervene in currency markets and extensive history of doing just that, how willing are you to step in front of the BoJ even for just a day?

Thank you for reading ETF Global Perspectives!

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____________________________________________________________
Assumptions, opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice.  ETF Global LLC (“ETFG”) and its affiliates and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (collectively ETFG Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, adequacy or timeliness of any information, including ratings and rankings and are not responsible for errors and omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information and ETFG Parties shall have no liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions therein, regardless of the cause, or for the results obtained from the use of such information. ETFG PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, SUITABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE.  In no event shall ETFG Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs) in connection with any use of the information contained in this document even if advised of the possibility of such damages.

ETFG ratings and rankings are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions. ETFG ratings and rankings should not be relied on when making any investment or other business decision.  ETFG’s opinions and analyses do not address the suitability of any security.  ETFG does not act as a fiduciary or an investment advisor.  While ETFG has obtained information from sources they believe to be reliable, ETFG does not perform an audit or undertake any duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives.


This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.  Any opinions expressed herein are given in good faith, are subject to change without notice, and are only correct as of the stated date of their issue.  Prices, values, or income from any securities or investments mentioned in this report may fall against the interests of the investor and the investor may get back less than the amount invested.  Where an investment is described as being likely to yield income, please note that the amount of income that the investor will receive from such an investment may fluctuate.  Where an investment or security is denominated in a different currency to the investor's currency of reference, changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of or from that investment to the investor.

Monday, April 4, 2016

Bullseye

Reading over Yellen’s uber-dovish speech on Tuesday felt roughly like stepping into a ring with an enraged bull while wearing a big red target on our backs and with no rodeo clown to save us.  The abundance of positive economic data points that flooded the media later in the week left us asking ourselves the same two questions being debated by every strategist at the moment: “just exactly what data the Fed is reviewing as part of its commitment to being “data dependent” and “if not now, when?”

Everyone’s debating what it means to be “credible” and whether the Fed can still be said to be that will haunt us at least until the next FOMC press conference but ultimately the question of who was right and who was wrong won’t be decided in the financial blogosphere, although if you want some solid insight into the Chairwoman’s thought processes, we’d encourage you to visit the Macro Man’s recent posting “When Doves Fly" - http://macro-man.blogspot.in/2016/03/when-doves-fly.html  Then again, it’s been clear to the markets for some time that Janet Yellen is her own woman and where her predecessor backed off on QE3 well before attaining the 2% inflation target; she’s more than prepared to accept overshooting that living with the specter of deflation and her comments last Tuesday did have their intended effect of putting more downward pressure on the dollar.  And for many investors, that was the best of all possible outcomes.

How do we know?  Start by looking over our recently update fund flows data because while everyone’s been talking about the strong returns for certain commodities in the first quarter, when you look at where the money is flowing to the story becomes less about commodities and almost exclusively about precious metals funds.  We track six broad categories of commodity funds and of the approximately $9.3 billion in new assets they brought in Q1, over 90% of the inflows went to precious metals funds!  Even that doesn’t quite capture the magnitude of this major momentum shift so we’d like to point out that $8 billion of that $9.3 billion went to just two funds, the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) and iShares COMEX Gold Trust (IAU.)  Hardly a deep and broad recovery for commodity funds although that’s perhaps not overly surprising given the relative weak global outlook or woes afflicting the energy sector after Iran said it wouldn’t adhere to any production cap until restoring its output to pre-sanction levels.  Plus unlike most commodity funds, GLD and IAU have very low tracking error making them the perfect vehicle to use if you feel that that Fed will be forced to back off its rate hike plans or that more volatility is ahead.

However, that isn’t to say that ALL the money went to gold funds last quarter but what didn’t make it to the Austrian’s favorite alternative currency went largely to two different places, emerging market funds and bonds, as investors decided to put the Fed’s lack of resolve to work in their favor.  EM equities had a strong quarter with the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Fund (EEM) outperforming the S&P 500 by close to 600 bps, its widest margin since late 2012 and raising its AUM by close to $400 million but that pales in comparison to the iShares MSCI Brazil Fund (EWZ.)  Once upon a time (like last year), EWZ was hovering close to the bottom of our behavioral score rankings but Yellen’s dovish stance barely fazed the fund last week.  In fact, there were almost no major changes worth noting in our ETFG Quant Movers Report because the market had already anticipated the Chairwoman’s viewpoint so today EWZ is still holding down the #1 spot after delivering an almost unbelievable (until you remember how volatile it can be) 27.2% return in the first quarter which helped deliver over $300 million in new assets.  Even the smaller and more diverse iShares Latin America 40 (ILF) saw over $24 million in positive inflows after a strong 18.7% advance last quarter.

But even $300 million is just a drop in the bucket compared to how much money made its way into certain bond funds last quarter in what may be the most direct investor challenge to the Fed’s credibility on being able to either create inflation or adhere to any plan of rate hikes given the Fed’s unwillingness to stomach higher market volatility.  After all, you expect funds like EWZ and ILF to attract a certain kind of investor who covets their high volatility for the possibility of subsequently high capital gains, but both the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) and the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) took in billions in new capital last quarter and you’d have to have either a very dim view on the recent market recovery or the Fed’s willingness to ever hike rates again to consider going long at these levels.  And that might be proven right, that post by the Macro Man included a very tongue-in-cheek breakdown of the reasons why the Fed can’t possible hike in 2017 including the upcoming Brexit vote and U.S. presidential election.

So again we’re left asking, if not now, then when?

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