Monday, January 14, 2019

Long Term vs. Short Term

Monday, January 14, 2019 - Stocks finished higher for the third straight week, with Small-Cap and International markets outperforming. For the week, the DJIA was up 562.79 points, the S&P 500 rose 64.32 points, while the NASDAQ Composite gained 232.62 points.

The market gains helped make the Russell 2000 Index the last major benchmark to emerge from bear market territory. Within the S&P 500 Index, Industrial shares performed best, helped by strength in railroads and a sharp rise in Boeing. Energy shares were also especially strong for much of the week as oil prices rallied, although they gave back a portion of their gains on Friday. Financials lagged and Health Care stocks also underperformed despite the news of another large merger in the sector—Eli Lilly’s proposed $8 billion acquisition of Loxo Oncology. Volatility continued to moderate, with the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) hitting its lowest level in over a month, while higher-valued growth stocks outperformed slower-growing value shares.

Stocks have staged a healthy rally in the past two weeks, rewarding investors that stayed calm in the face of December's panic. This highlights the importance of a longer-term perspective, as some of the market's best days often come on the heels of its worst. For example, the late-December sell-off included the worst two-day decline (-4.8%) since 2015, which was followed the very next day by the best daily gain (+5.0%) since March 2009. We have now experienced four corrections (declines of 10% or more) in the past four years, directly in line with the average since 1900 of one correction per year.

It's a reminder that despite the uncomfortable nature of market pullbacks, volatility is in fact a normal part of investing. Being a long-term investor does not require you to ignore shifts in the market, but it does require perspective and discipline. In General, stocks are now up 10.4% from their December lows, having recouped more than 40% of the total decline. Looking at the 10%-plus pullbacks since 2010, the market regained the entire drop in an average of 90 days. This is no guarantee that recent losses will be erased in such short order, but the rally over the past few weeks is a reminder that the decline in December may not be a one-way path toward a severe bear market.

ETFG Quant Movers – those ETFs who have had the largest weekly change in their respective, overall ETFG Quant ratings: 

ETFG Quant Winners: Invesco S&P International Developed Momentum ETF (IDMO) took the number one spot up 14.95 points and a score of 54.38. iShares Edge MSCI Intl Size Factor ETF (ISZE) gained 13.78 points to end with a Quant score of 55.16. Invesco S&P 500 Minimum Variance ETF (SPMV) posted a solid gain in score moving up 13.65 points to a score of 55.93. Rounding out the Top Five were Oppenheimer Russell 1000 Quality Factor ETF (OQAL) and Dorsey Wright MLP Index ETN (BMLP) which rose 13.58 and 13.17 points respectively.

ETFG Quant Losers: This week’s biggest loser was Invesco S&P International Developed Low Volatility ETF (IDLV) dropping 10.68 points to a 50.56 Quant score. VictoryShares US EQ Income Enhanced Volatility ETF (CDC) fell 9.67 points to 40.01. VanEck Vectors Gaming ETF (BJK) declined 9.54 points to 41.21. iShares MSCI Italy ETF (EWI) moved down 9.49 points to 53.01. Ending out the bottom five is Invesco BLDRS Developed Markets 100 ADR Index Fund (ADRD) down 9.44 points to 45.97.

ETFG Weekly Select List - the five most highly rated ETFs per Sector, Geographic Region and Strategy as ranked by the ETFG Quant model.

Because of the sectors success on the 1W Quant Rating of the ETFG Heat Map, we’d like to highlight some substantial movement in the Technology Sector when comparing this week’s Select List to last. SPDR FactSet Innovative Technology ETF (XITK) takes the number one spot as a newcomer, unranked last week. Dropping one spot down to second was last week’s top pick First Trust Nasdaq Semiconductor ETF (FTXL). Global X FinTech Thematic ETF (FINX), ALPS Disruptive Technologies ETF (DTEC) and iShares North American Tech-Multimedia Networking ETF (IGN) round out this week’s Technology Sector Select List. Keep an eye on our Weekly Select List for crucial insights as investors continue to turn to ETPs for portfolio diversification and security in these volatile markets.

Thanks for reading ETF Global Perspectives

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_____________________________________________________________
Assumptions, opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice.  ETF Global LLC (“ETFG”) and its affiliates and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (collectively ETFG Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, adequacy or timeliness of any information, including ratings and rankings and are not responsible for errors and omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information and ETFG Parties shall have no liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions therein, regardless of the cause, or for the results obtained from the use of such information. ETFG PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, SUITABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE.  In no event shall ETFG Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs) in connection with any use of the information contained in this document even if advised of the possibility of such damages.

ETFG ratings and rankings are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions. ETFG ratings and rankings should not be relied on when making any investment or other business decision.  ETFG’s opinions and analyses do not address the suitability of any security.  ETFG does not act as a fiduciary or an investment advisor.  While ETFG has obtained information from sources they believe to be reliable, ETFG does not perform an audit or undertake any duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives.

This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.  Any opinions expressed herein are given in good faith, are subject to change without notice, and are only correct as of the stated date of their issue.  Prices, values, or income from any securities or investments mentioned in this report may fall against the interests of the investor and the investor may get back less than the amount invested.  Where an investment is described as being likely to yield income, please note that the amount of income that the investor will receive from such an investment may fluctuate.  Where an investment or security is denominated in a different currency to the investor's currency of reference, changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of or from that investment to the investor.

Tuesday, January 8, 2019

1Q 2019 Rebalance – ETF Global® Dynamic Model Portfolios

Tuesday, January 8, 2019 - We joked in our last ETFG Model Portfolio quarterly rebalance commentary that “investors who heeded that sage advice to sell in May and go away were once again disappointed.” Equities continued to push higher and that early chill, that we talked about as equities closed out weak in late September, turned into a full-blown epidemic. The long-awaited correction finally sent domestic indexes briefly into bear market territory. The tech stocks that had long dominated the market weren’t the only ones to feel the pain as Cyclicals, Industrials and even long-depressed Energy stocks felt the sting as investors turned to Treasuries and Gold. Return on capital is out, return OF capital is in!

That tech pain and the weak Christmas recovery, that helped pull the markets out of bear market territory, explain why the ETFG Dynamic Model Portfolios favor larger names with more of a growth or at least balanced orientation in the most recent reallocation that was completed on January 2nd.  All 4 of the Base Portfolios and the 8 “tilts” were updated with the domestic sleeve of the portfolio seeing a major shakeup as the two dedicated value funds, the SPDR S&P 400 Mid Cap Value ETF (MDYV) and the SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value ETF (SLYV), were replaced by the iShares Russell Midcap ETF (IWR) and the SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Growth ETF. Those two additions, along with the retention of the Direxion NASDAQ 100 Equal Weighted Fund (QQQE) and the SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap ETF (SLY) gives the domestic allocation a large core feel by reducing the allocation to Financials while simultaneously raising the average market capitalization of the portfolio substantially.

Another factor that made the fourth quarter so challenging was that there was nowhere to turn. Equity volatility spread abroad with most international ETFs suffering just as badly as domestic funds over the last three months to close out the year down substantially. While there were opportunities in the third quarter for investors willing to do their homework and buy funds for specific nations, the broad equity sell-off led many to seek shelter in fixed income, leaving the international fund space a sea of red.

The turnover in our international basket reflects that with two of the four funds leaving the international allocation for the first quarter. The international sleeve retains its decidedly European flavor thanks to the retention of the SPDR STOXX Europe 50 ETF (FEU) along with the introduction of the WisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity Fund (HEDJ), while the iShares MSCI Italy ETF (EWI) is replaced by another troubled member of the EU (for now), the iShares MSCI United Kingdom Fund (EWU.)  For all the “Sturm und Drang” over the failure of the May government to deliver an acceptable Brexit deal, raising the risk the UK might endure a painful sendoff, EWU has performed in-line with the broader EU markets. EWU also retained a substantially higher fundamental score as investors remain wary of going long in such a troubled situation.  Could even a modest improvement in the sentiment surrounding Brexit lead to big gains for EWU?

One place where investors seem to be finding confidence is in Latin America. Our emerging markets allocation saw a noticeable change as the iShares Latin America 40 (ILF) was replaced by the iShares Mexico ETF (EWW). Investors were well served by ILF as the fund strongly outperformed not just broader EM funds but domestic stocks as well, thanks in large part to a strong showing by its Brazilian holdings. Yet, ILF’s Quant score has dropped as Brazilian stocks have become more overpriced. Fundamentals are only one factor as Mexican stocks have begun to outperform thanks in part to investors reevaluating President Obrador’s business stance, giving EWW the opportunity to catch-up to its peers.

You can find an overview and performance information for the ETF Global Dynamic Model Portfolios at http://www.etfg.com/about-model-portfolios To learn more about our ETFG Model Portfolio strategy, please email us at sales@etfg.com or call us at (212) 223-ETFG (3834).

Thanks for reading ETF Global Perspectives!

ETFG 21 Day Free Trial:  https://www.etfg.com/signup/quick

_____________________________________________________________
Assumptions, opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice.  ETF Global LLC (“ETFG”) and its affiliates and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (collectively ETFG Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, adequacy or timeliness of any information, including ratings and rankings and are not responsible for errors and omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information and ETFG Parties shall have no liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions therein, regardless of the cause, or for the results obtained from the use of such information. ETFG PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, SUITABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE.  In no event shall ETFG Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs) in connection with any use of the information contained in this document even if advised of the possibility of such damages.

ETFG ratings and rankings are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions. ETFG ratings and rankings should not be relied on when making any investment or other business decision.  ETFG’s opinions and analyses do not address the suitability of any security.  ETFG does not act as a fiduciary or an investment advisor.  While ETFG has obtained information from sources they believe to be reliable, ETFG does not perform an audit or undertake any duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives.


This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.  Any opinions expressed herein are given in good faith, are subject to change without notice, and are only correct as of the stated date of their issue.  Prices, values, or income from any securities or investments mentioned in this report may fall against the interests of the investor and the investor may get back less than the amount invested.  Where an investment is described as being likely to yield income, please note that the amount of income that the investor will receive from such an investment may fluctuate.  Where an investment or security is denominated in a different currency to the investor's currency of reference, changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of or from that investment to the investor.

Monday, January 7, 2019

Thank You Boom Boom Powell

Monday, January 7, 2019 - We would like to start the New Year by saluting a new entrant into the world of Google search, “Boom Boom Powell.”  A search of the term brings up a number of sports celebrities, WWI and WWII pilot and Navy Veterans and now Jerome Powell, the honorable Fed Chairman, thanks to the folks at Morning Brew who popularized the term.  JP earned his new nickname from comments he made on Friday relieving investors’ fear that he would pull the “Greenspan Plug” to backstop the equity markets in a severe decline. This resulted in a strong one-day rally with the Dow surging some 3.3% and other major indexes sharing similar upward moves.

The first week of 2019 was another roller coaster ride for investors. The markets played a tug of war but US Equity Markets managed to end the week in positive territory.  The Large Cap weighted S&P 500 closed at 2,531.94 and the broader NASDAQ Composite closed at 6,738.86 for a weekly jump of 1.86% and 2.34 %.

Helping to move the major indexes on Boom Boom’s comments was an unexpectedly strong jobs report despite a rise in unemployment claims and the announcement of renewed trade discussions with China. Investor sentiment remains cautious as concerns ranging from the economic fallout from an ongoing government shutdown, increased questioning of corporate earnings quality, confidence in the current administration, stability in the oil markets, credit concerns and Brexit which appears to be headed for a hard landing. Investors seem to have given pause that a global slowdown could be avoided.

We think investors sentiment has markedly shifted and will remain cautious for good reason. First, Lu Wang at Bloomberg wrote yesterday in her insightful article titled “Dip Buyers Beware the S&P 500 Bottoming Process Can Take Time” that bear markets typically last some 8 months but can be characterized by strong violent rallies as stocks struggle to regain their footing. We agree with her. The numbers are the numbers.

As our friends at Barron’s pointed out in an interview with Stephanie Pomboy, founder of MarcoMavens, the bull market has largely been supported by stock buybacks and a small number of tech stocks driving the indexes. She points out that since 2011, the S&P 500 EPS has risen by 67% while aggregate US corporate profits only rose by 23%, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.  Is there a “bubble” in buyback-inflated earnings? What happens if there is a slowdown and firms pull-back on the stock repurchase plans? We also noted an interesting article by a Richard Phillips in the well-respected beltway publication, The Globalist, https://www.theglobalist.com/us-stock-market-federal-reserve-economy/ who asks if the increased volatility is symbolic of deteriorating confidence in US Institutions?

We expect market volatility to continue for some time as the investors calculate the impact of new trade regimes, fallout from the ongoing govt shutdown and general political instability worldwide. This creates opportunities for traders and active investors who can use ETFs to take advantage of real-time market volatility – both up and down!

ETFG Weekly Select List - To best support the ETF selection process, The ETFG Weekly Select List highlights the 5 most highly rated ETFs per Sector, Geographic Region and Strategy as ranked by the ETFG Quant model.  We highlight a couple of ETFs that attracted our attention.

Long term investors should look at OIH in the Energy Sector which continued to share our top rating as does NFRA in Natural Resources and FUTY in Utilities. For the more adventurous investor/trader, IYZ in Telecoms jumped from 4 to 1.  For those seeking plays in emerging markets, EMIF and TUR for a Turkish play and EZA for the Middle East & Africa continue to hold our highest ratings.

Today’s market realities require a new approach to macro investing, one in which individual investors now have access to tools via ETPs to customize risk and return profiles in their portfolios. We suggest keeping a mindful eye on tools like our Select List, Scanner, ETFG Quant Scores and Risk and Reward Ratings that can be used to evaluate the vast set of opportunities in the ETF marketplace.

Thank you for reading ETF Global Perspectives!

ETFG 21 Day Free Trial:  https://www.etfg.com/signup/quick
____________________________________________________________
Assumptions, opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice.  ETF Global LLC (“ETFG”) and its affiliates and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (collectively ETFG Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, adequacy or timeliness of any information, including ratings and rankings and are not responsible for errors and omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information and ETFG Parties shall have no liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions therein, regardless of the cause, or for the results obtained from the use of such information. ETFG PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, SUITABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE.  In no event shall ETFG Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs) in connection with any use of the information contained in this document even if advised of the possibility of such damages.

ETFG ratings and rankings are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions. ETFG ratings and rankings should not be relied on when making any investment or other business decision.  ETFG’s opinions and analyses do not address the suitability of any security.  ETFG does not act as a fiduciary or an investment advisor.  While ETFG has obtained information from sources they believe to be reliable, ETFG does not perform an audit or undertake any duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives.

This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.  Any opinions expressed herein are given in good faith, are subject to change without notice, and are only correct as of the stated date of their issue.  Prices, values, or income from any securities or investments mentioned in this report may fall against the interests of the investor and the investor may get back less than the amount invested.  Where an investment is described as being likely to yield income, please note that the amount of income that the investor will receive from such an investment may fluctuate.  Where an investment or security is denominated in a different currency to the investor's currency of reference, changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of or from that investment to the investor.

Friday, January 4, 2019

ETF Global® wins 2018 Most Innovative ETF Research & Analysis Platform!

Friday, January 4, 2019 - In U.K. based Wealth & International Magazine’s 4th Annual Investment Fund Awards, ETF Global was announced as the winner of the 2018 Most Innovative ETF Research & Analysis Platform.

About the Award - From Pensions to ETFs, Managers to Service Providers and everyone in between, the Fund Awards seek to showcase the very best of the best from around the world and across the burgeoning global investment fund landscape. The overriding aim of this award program is to acknowledge and reward those who work to provide their customers with the very highest standards of service and support in the funds market.

After a months-long review process, ETF Global was selected from a multitude of candidates as 2018’s Most Innovative ETF Research & Analysis Platform.

To advance from nominee to winner, candidates must be able to demonstrate expertise in a given area, dedication to client fulfillment, noteworthy performance or commitment to innovation. Ultimately, to ensure that one’s recognition is truly deserved, all award winners are chosen through a combination of votes gathered from W&I’s network of respected industry partners and their own rigorous in-house research and due diligence.

Promisingly, this award coincides with our official expansion into the European market, as we recently opened our European headquarters in London. Europe is already home to a robust and fast-growing ETF marketplace, with nearly $750 billion in AUM. This market will offer ETFG many exciting opportunities to reach a broader global audience and extend its best-in-class data, research, analytics and solutions to a geographic region that will only continue to grow in importance in the world of ETFs.

Thanks for reading ETF Global Perspectives!

ETFG 21 Day Free Trial:  https://www.etfg.com/signup/quick


_____________________________________________________________
Assumptions, opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice.  ETF Global LLC (“ETFG”) and its affiliates and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (collectively ETFG Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, adequacy or timeliness of any information, including ratings and rankings and are not responsible for errors and omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information and ETFG Parties shall have no liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions therein, regardless of the cause, or for the results obtained from the use of such information. ETFG PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, SUITABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE.  In no event shall ETFG Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs) in connection with any use of the information contained in this document even if advised of the possibility of such damages.

ETFG ratings and rankings are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions. ETFG ratings and rankings should not be relied on when making any investment or other business decision.  ETFG’s opinions and analyses do not address the suitability of any security.  ETFG does not act as a fiduciary or an investment advisor.  While ETFG has obtained information from sources they believe to be reliable, ETFG does not perform an audit or undertake any duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives.

This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.  Any opinions expressed herein are given in good faith, are subject to change without notice, and are only correct as of the stated date of their issue.  Prices, values, or income from any securities or investments mentioned in this report may fall against the interests of the investor and the investor may get back less than the amount invested.  Where an investment is described as being likely to yield income, please note that the amount of income that the investor will receive from such an investment may fluctuate.  Where an investment or security is denominated in a different currency to the investor's currency of reference, changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of or from that investment to the investor.

Monday, December 31, 2018

Investor Whiplash

Monday, December 31, 2018 - First and foremost, we wish everyone and their families in advance a very happy and healthy new year and all the best for 2019!

Now onto the markets - the season of jolly proved to be a roller coaster week for investors as the markets rallied immediately after Christmas Day and ended the week up on the major indexes providing long needed relief. Investor sentiment, however, remains cautious as concerns persist ranging from quickly rising interest rates, increased questioning of confidence in the current administration as the exodus of senior White House Advisors continues, credit concerns and Brexit. Trade tensions and a growing sense of a global slowdown also weigh on investors.

US indexes ended the week in positive territory - the S&P 500 closed at 2,485.74 and the broader NASDAQ Composite closed at 6,584.52 for a weekly jump of 2.86% and 3.97 %. Nevertheless, entering the last trading day of year, the indexes YTD were still down to a negative 7.03% on the S&P 500 Index and a negative 4.62% on the NASDAQ Composite.

Market volatility the past two weeks has been accentuated by tax selling and low liquidity due to the holidays and upcoming regulatory reviews on the major financial institutions to access capital haircuts.  In January we would expect to see more liquidity reentering the markets thereby reducing the move of markets on low volume.  A number of articles attracted our attention this week showing a marked change in the market’s paradigm to an over abundance of caution.

First, we noted Mohamed El-Erian’s December 30th article in Bloomberg which sited the pullback of banks in market-making activities this month due to regulatory reviews and how market volatility could have the effect of accentuating any global economic slowdown.   See his comments at:


Second, we noted a “rant” by Jeremiah Johnson on ZeroHedge titled The Calm Before the Storm.  What struck us was his list of investor concerns and tone of the article which was reminiscent of Rick Santelli’s rant on CNBC on government bailouts which proved to be the firing shot to mobilize the popular Tea Party.  This article can be found at:


Now let’s look at our ETFG Weekly Select List 

To best support the ETF selection process, The ETFG Weekly Select List highlights the 5 most highly rated ETFs per Sector, Geographic Region and Strategy as ranked by the ETFG Quant model.  We highlight a couple of ETFs that attracted our attention.

The extreme volatility the past two weeks makes us cautious but we these funds had significant jumps: SPHD went jumped 4 ratings to 1 for those looking for a high dividend play. Likewise, ITEQ, a Middle East play jumped 3 ratings to 2 as did NFRA, a natural resources play. It jumped 4 no doubt as a play on the beaten-up oil and natural resources sectors.

We suggest keeping a mindful eye on tools like our Select List and Risk and Reward Ratings that can be used to evaluate the vast set of opportunities in the ETF marketplace. Today’s market realities require a new approach to macro investing, one in which individual investors now have access to tools via ETPs to customize risk and return profiles in their portfolios. Use our Scanner to find those funds.

Thanks for reading ETF Global Perspectives!

ETFG 21 Day Free Trial:  https://www.etfg.com/signup/quick

_____________________________________________________________
Assumptions, opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice.  ETF Global LLC (“ETFG”) and its affiliates and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (collectively ETFG Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, adequacy or timeliness of any information, including ratings and rankings and are not responsible for errors and omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information and ETFG Parties shall have no liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions therein, regardless of the cause, or for the results obtained from the use of such information. ETFG PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, SUITABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE.  In no event shall ETFG Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs) in connection with any use of the information contained in this document even if advised of the possibility of such damages.

ETFG ratings and rankings are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions. ETFG ratings and rankings should not be relied on when making any investment or other business decision.  ETFG’s opinions and analyses do not address the suitability of any security.  ETFG does not act as a fiduciary or an investment advisor.  While ETFG has obtained information from sources they believe to be reliable, ETFG does not perform an audit or undertake any duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives.

This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.  Any opinions expressed herein are given in good faith, are subject to change without notice, and are only correct as of the stated date of their issue.  Prices, values, or income from any securities or investments mentioned in this report may fall against the interests of the investor and the investor may get back less than the amount invested.  Where an investment is described as being likely to yield income, please note that the amount of income that the investor will receive from such an investment may fluctuate.  Where an investment or security is denominated in a different currency to the investor's currency of reference, changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of or from that investment to the investor.

Monday, December 24, 2018

Christmas in the Red

Monday, December 24, 2018 – As families gather to celebrate the holidays, investors seem conflicted as to whether the glass is half full or half empty in regards to the markets. Looking back, we reminisce about headlines touting “all-time highs” and up until a few weeks ago, investors appeared confident. It would seem the Fed agrees with the notion of half full with last week's decision to raise short-term interest rates for a fourth time this year. The Federal Reserve tried to strike a balance between these steep market fluctuations and its optimistic assessment of a strong economy. Conversely, the market began this week with a trio of worries, including trade disruptions, geopolitical concerns and the compounding specter of further Fed rate hikes. Not to mention, the threat of a governmental shutdown drove an additional bout of volatility in Friday's trading.

All major benchmarks slid to their lowest levels in well over a year. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index (Fidelity NASDAQ Composite Index Tracking Stock (ONEQ)) fared worst and joined the small-cap Russell 2000 Index (iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)) in bear market territory, down more than 20% from its all-time highs in August. The S&P MidCap 400 Index (SPDR S&P Midcap 400 ETF Trust (MDY)) also moved into bear market terrain on Friday morning. The pullback was especially dramatic in the energy sector as oil prices plunged to the lowest levels in over a year.

Speaking of volatility, the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) saw major highs, levels last seen in February. As a matter of fact, a few of the volatility linked ETFs did quite well in 2018. Over the past year, the iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXXB), VelocityShares VIX Short-Term ETN (VIIX) and iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN Class A (VXX) all surged over 50% year-to-date.

ETFG Weekly Quant Movers – In the ETFG Quant Movers, we saw some interesting movements with S&P linked funds. Honorable mentions in the “Weekly Gainers’ category, iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV), iShares Micro-Cap ETF (IWC) and Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 ETF (VIOO) saw an increase of 28.27%, 25.61% and 22.17% to their overall Quant Score.

Weekly ETFG Quant losers included, Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF (SPLV), Hull Tactical US ETF (HTUS) and Inspire Small/Mid Cap Impact ETF (ISMD) all three funds saw a decrease of 22.31%, 21.75% and 21.45% respectively to their overall scores.

ETFG Weekly Select List
 - the 5 most highly rated ETFs per Sector, Geographic Region and Strategy as ranked by the ETFG Quant model.

As expected, we saw major turnover in both the Natural Resources and Financial categories of the Sector portion of the ETFG Weekly Select List. We would like to highlight these sectors due to the surprising correlation to last week’s analysis. In the Natural Resources portion, Invesco Global Agriculture ETF (PAGG) jumped from 5th to 1st while newcomers SPDR S&P North American Natural Resources ETF (NANR) and First Trust Indxx Global Agriculture ETF (FTAG). In Financials, after the Fed’s rate increase Invesco KBW Regional Banking ETF (KBWR) moved up two spots to claim 1st place this week while SPDR S&P Insurance ETF (KIE) and Invesco KBW Bank ETF (KBWB) were awarded 2nd and 3rd place respectively.

Merry Christmas and thanks for reading ETF Global Perspectives!

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Assumptions, opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice.  ETF Global LLC (“ETFG”) and its affiliates and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (collectively ETFG Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, adequacy or timeliness of any information, including ratings and rankings and are not responsible for errors and omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information and ETFG Parties shall have no liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions therein, regardless of the cause, or for the results obtained from the use of such information. ETFG PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, 
INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, SUITABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE.

In no event shall ETFG Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs) in connection with any use of the information contained in this document even if advised of the possibility of such damages.

ETFG ratings and rankings are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions. ETFG ratings and rankings should not be relied on when making any investment or other business decision.  ETFG’s opinions and analyses do not address the suitability of any security.  ETFG does not act as a fiduciary or an investment advisor.  While ETFG has obtained information from sources they believe to be reliable, ETFG does not perform an audit or undertake any duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives.

This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.  Any opinions expressed herein are given in good faith, are subject to change without notice, and are only correct as of the stated date of their issue.  Prices, values, or income from any securities or investments mentioned in this report may fall against the interests of the investor and the investor may get back less than the amount invested.  Where an investment is described as being likely to yield income, please note that the amount of income that the investor will receive from such an investment may fluctuate.  Where an investment or security is denominated in a different currency to the investor's currency of reference, changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of or from that investment to the investor.

Tuesday, December 18, 2018

Winners Announced - Fall 2018 ETF Global® Portfolio Challenge!

Tuesday, December 18, 2018 - After 10 weeks of intense competition, characterized by constant change atop the leaderboard and double digit returns among the top ten finishers, the Fall 2018 ETF Global® Portfolio Challenge has come to a close. Our seventh edition of the Portfolio Challenge brought a new wave of talented college students from a diverse array of universities and academic backgrounds. Drawing students from 253 schools, 41 countries on 5 continents, this semester’s competition helped enlarge the portfolio challenge’s already broad global footprint and create highly competitive playing conditions.

Our contestants all began the semester with a virtual balance of $100,000 and with the task of constructing the best performing portfolio of ETFs. Students were afforded weekly rebalance opportunities and to invest in a minimum of 4 and maximum of 10 ETFs at a time. Despite facing heavy competition all semester, these 5 select students below were able to separate themselves from the rest of the field.

Please join us in congratulating the top 5 winners of the Fall 2018 ETF Global® Portfolio Challenge!

Name
School
Portfolio Return
Rongbai Xue
Tulane University
52.09%
Ronika Choudhury
Birkbeck, University of London
37.19%
Brennan Siemens
University of Manitoba
22.96%
Binru Wu
Tulane University
22.64%
Ha Nguyen
Keuka College
21.96%

Our winners hailed from four different schools in three different countries. Our first place winner, Rongbai Xue, rode the unpredictable volatility of the markets this fall. Investing heavily in VelocityShares VIX Short Term ETN and iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term Futures Rongbai was able to produce returns in excess of 50%. Both Ronika and Brennan invested mainly in Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X and Direxion Shares Exchange Traded Fund Trust helping them to earn returns of 37.19% and 22.96% respectively. Binru was able to achieve 22.64% returns through investing in a mix of Trust backed ETFs and Short-Term Treasury Bond ETNs. Finally, our fifth place finisher Ha focused on energy themed ETFs and had a portfolio heavily weighted in Oil & Gas products.

As the Top 5 Winners of this semester’s challenge, these students will be featured and recognized during the ETF Global® Portfolio Challenge Awards Ceremony at the upcoming Spring 2019 ETP Forum (www.etpforum.org) on Tuesday, April 30th at the New York Athletic Club.

Please see below for the students that rounded out our Top 25 participants:

Name
School
Portfolio Return
Thomas Duvalleroy
SKEMA Business School
20.04%
Dwayne Safer
Messiah College
18.08%
Brahim Mokrane
ESCP Europe
16.87%
Shang Wang
Rutgers University
15.23%
Meng Jia
Rutgers University
14.00%
Rocio Anahi Cejas
Oxford Brookes University
13.66%
Arnas Leika
Birkbeck, University of London
9.14%
Matthew Vangalen
University of Detroit Mercy
7.75%
Spiro Pliakos
University of Detroit Mercy
7.70%
Alexa Yonan
University of Detroit Mercy
6.99%
Benjamin Wilson
Messiah College
6.91%
Yili Zhao
St. John’s University
4.80%
Michael Conceison
University of Maine
4.28%
Shweta Desai
University of Maine
4.18%
Yael Borovich
University of Manitoba
3.36%
Claire Bradley
University of Tampa
2.72%
Darshan Patel
University of Tampa
2.31%
Jaime Garcia-Yanes
University of Tampa
1.38%
John Polchow
St. John’s University
1.16%
Alex Roszkowski
St. John’s University
1.12%

Since its inception in the Fall 2015, the ETF Global® Portfolio Challenge has attracted students from 6 continents and 450 schools. As Millennials continue to increase their usage of ETFs, we encourage all college students to take advantage of this opportunity and learn about this fast-growing investment vehicle before they enter the marketplace.

Registration for the Spring 2018 competition will open at the end of January.  For more information and to sign-up for the Challenge, please visit: www.etfportfoliochallenge.com.

Thank you for reading ETF Global Perspectives!

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_____________________________________________________________
Assumptions, opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice.  ETF Global LLC (“ETFG”) and its affiliates and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (collectively ETFG Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, adequacy or timeliness of any information, including ratings and rankings and are not responsible for errors and omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information and ETFG Parties shall have no liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions therein, regardless of the cause, or for the results obtained from the use of such information. ETFG PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, SUITABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE.  In no event shall ETFG Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs) in connection with any use of the information contained in this document even if advised of the possibility of such damages.

ETFG ratings and rankings are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions. ETFG ratings and rankings should not be relied on when making any investment or other business decision.  ETFG’s opinions and analyses do not address the suitability of any security.  ETFG does not act as a fiduciary or an investment advisor.  While ETFG has obtained information from sources they believe to be reliable, ETFG does not perform an audit or undertake any duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives.

This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.  Any opinions expressed herein are given in good faith, are subject to change without notice, and are only correct as of the stated date of their issue.  Prices, values, or income from any securities or investments mentioned in this report may fall against the interests of the investor and the investor may get back less than the amount invested.  Where an investment is described as being likely to yield income, please note that the amount of income that the investor will receive from such an investment may fluctuate.  Where an investment or security is denominated in a different currency to the investor's currency of reference, changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of or from that investment to the investor.