Monday, August 31, 2020

The Fed & Tech - Two Powerful Market Forces

Monday, August 31, 2020 - Another week, another amazing performance from Big Tech - Rinse, repeat.  For the past few months, we have witnessed an overall lagging economy that hasn’t quite recovered from Covid-19 become outshined and simply forgotten by market’s major indices, as the technology sector continues its ultra-impressive run.  This same pattern has recurred since the March 23rd low in the Dow Jones, which has now rallied over 10,000 points in a little over 5 months’ time.

This week, the Dow Jones Industrial closed at 28,653.87, the S&P 500 closed at 3,508.01 and the Nasdaq Composite closed at 11,695.63, which were weekly gains of 2.6%, 3.3% and 3.4% respectively. The Nasdaq and S&P both closed at all-time highs this week and the Dow Jones is not far off it’s all time high. The usual suspects were from the tech sector; FAANG and its large-cap contemporaries rallied the major indices again, with one of these companies, Salesforce.com Inc (CFM), claiming a spot in the sacred Dow Jones Index, replacing long-time constituent Exxon Mobile (XOM), which has been in the index since 1928.

However, the technology sector was not the only noteworthy story this week, as the Federal Reserve’s Chairman, Jerome Powell, revealed a plan that emphasized low interest rates in the future, even with an inflation increase. Mr. Powell noted the Fed’s new focus on handling inflation will be “informed by our assessments of shortfalls of employment from its maximum level, rather than by deviations from it’s maximum level.”  As the Fed becomes less dependent on manipulating inflation based on jobs reports, this news signaled to investors that the Fed will not be intervening and, for the foreseeable future, will let the economy recover the way it has for the past few months without getting in the way.

ETFG Quant Movers - The ETFs that had the largest weekly change in their respective, overall ETFG Quant ratings. We look at this week’s top 5% Gainers and % Losers in the ETF universe.

ETFG Quant Winners:  On the % Gainers side, our top 5 ETFs according to the ETFG Quant model were IMLP, LDRS, FLEH, SDEM, and ACT which have gains of 41.42%, 38.65%, 24.26%, 21.31% and 20.98% respectively. LDRS, our 2nd place %Gainer, tracks US ETFs and this could speak to the bigger picture of the overall successful week in the market.

ETFG Quant Losers:  On the % Losers side, the top 5 losers this week were FPE, XLG, FNDE, EEH and FSZ which had losses of -26.66%, -25.91%, -25.66%, -25.47% and -22.80% respectively. The biggest loser, FPE (First Trust Preferred Securities & Income ETF), which tracks preferred equities worldwide, could perhaps have been hit by the lagging world economy as the US is recovering faster with Big Tech leading the way.

ETFG Weekly Select List: The five most highly rated ETFs per Sector, Geographic Region and Strategy as ranked by the ETFG Quant model.

In comparing last week’s list to this week’s, we illustrate which ETFs made the largest moves. We will be looking at the “Strategy” field this week. Some of the biggest moves this week came from RYJ (Invesco Raymond James SB-1 Equity ETF), which moved from 4th place the previous week to 2nd place this week in the ‘Alpha-Seeking’ sub-focus.  Another noticeable move was SCHD (Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF), which moved from 3rd place the previous week to 1st place this week in the ‘High Dividend Yield’ sub-focus. And finally, we have CHEP (AGFiQ US Market Neutral Value Fund), which moved from 3rd place to 1st place in the ‘Long/Short’ sub-focus.

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Assumptions, opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice.  ETF Global LLC (“ETFG”) and its affiliates and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (collectively ETFG Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, adequacy or timeliness of any information, including ratings and rankings and are not responsible for errors and omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information and ETFG Parties shall have no liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions therein, regardless of the cause, or for the results obtained from the use of such information. ETFG PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, SUITABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE.

In no event shall ETFG Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs) in connection with any use of the information contained in this document even if advised of the possibility of such damages.

ETFG ratings and rankings are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions. ETFG ratings and rankings should not be relied on when making any investment or other business decision.  ETFG’s opinions and analyses do not address the suitability of any security.  ETFG does not act as a fiduciary or an investment advisor.  While ETFG has obtained information from sources they believe to be reliable, ETFG does not perform an audit or undertake any duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives.

This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.  Any opinions expressed herein are given in good faith, are subject to change without notice, and are only correct as of the stated date of their issue.  Prices, values, or income from any securities or investments mentioned in this report may fall against the interests of the investor and the investor may get back less than the amount invested.  Where an investment is described as being likely to yield income, please note that the amount of income that the investor will receive from such an investment may fluctuate.  Where an investment or security is denominated in a different currency to the investor's currency of reference, changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income. 

Monday, August 24, 2020

Big Tech Ignores Dog Days of Summer

Monday, August 24. 2020 - This week, we saw yet another amazing rally from the US technology giants, continuing what has been a monstrous quarter from this industry throughout the COVID pandemic. On the week-end close, we saw the S&P 500 close at an all time high of 3,397.16 this week, which was a .72% weekly gain. The Nasdaq Composite closed at 11,311.80, which was a 2.65% weekly gain. Finally, the Dow Jones finished this week at 27,930.33, which was a 0% gain.

Tech giants, mainly Apple and Tesla, are a big reason we saw positive performance in the above indices, as Apple closed with a whopping $2 trillion valuation, separating itself as the clear-cut, most valuable US stock. Likewise, since Tesla’s stock split announcement on August 11th, the stock has gained nearly 50% in value. Apple’s weekly gain of 5.15% and Tesla’s weekly gain of 2.41% were big reasons the S&P and Nasdaq performed well. The question now becomes, how much longer can big tech hold up the economy before the other industries are able to catch up? The three major indices would tell you that our economy has recovered well from the Coronavirus thus far, but this is a bit narrow as big tech is dominating these results by having such towering performances over the past few months, leaving other industries, such as the travel industry, unrecovered and in the shadows of FAANG and its contemporaries.

ETFG Quant Movers - The ETFs that had the largest weekly change in their respective, overall ETFG Quant ratings. We look at this week’s top 5% Gainers and % Losers in the ETF universe.

ETFG Quant Winners: On the % Gainers side, we have PNQI, LDRS, JKD, JPLS, SKYY, posting 35.71%, 31.29%, 29.12%, 28.52%, and 27.16% respectively. A common theme in these ETFs are that they either focus on US tech/internet stocks (such as PNQI and SKYY) or US Large-Cap stocks, such as JKD and LDRS. Since these companies led the way this past week in the economy, it makes sense as to why they came out on top in our daily updated ETFG Quant model.

ETFG Quant Losers: On the % Losers side, we have FNDE, PWV, EDIV, QDEF and FGD. They posted weekly losses of -25.99%, -20.44%, -20.02%, -19.82% and -19.80% respectively. A common theme on this side shows us 4 of the 5 ETFs either aim to follow an Emerging Markets Index or a Dividend Index. What our model could be telling us, at least terms of the Emerging Markets ETFs, is that the world economy is still getting hit from the Coronavirus and while big tech has been able to carry the US economy during this time, smaller countries are not so fortunate.

ETFG Weekly Select List: The five most highly rated ETFs per Sector, Geographic Region and Strategy as ranked by the ETFG Quant model.

Finally, we will look at the ETFG Weekly Select List. We will be comparing last week’s list to this week, seeing which ETFs made the largest moves. Our focus today is on ‘Geography’. IJS (iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value ETF) made a huge move from 5th place the previous week to 1st place this week in the ‘North America’ sub-region. ICOL (iShares MSCI Colombia Capped ETF) made a move from 2nd place to 1st place in the ‘Emerging Markets’ sub-region. And lastly IPFF (iShares International Preferred Stock ETF) went from being unranked the previous week to 2nd place in the ‘Developed Markets’ sub-region.

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_______________________________________________________

Assumptions, opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice.  ETF Global LLC (“ETFG”) and its affiliates and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (collectively ETFG Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, adequacy or timeliness of any information, including ratings and rankings and are not responsible for errors and omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information and ETFG Parties shall have no liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions therein, regardless of the cause, or for the results obtained from the use of such information. ETFG PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, SUITABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE.

In no event shall ETFG Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs) in connection with any use of the information contained in this document even if advised of the possibility of such damages.

ETFG ratings and rankings are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions. ETFG ratings and rankings should not be relied on when making any investment or other business decision.  ETFG’s opinions and analyses do not address the suitability of any security.  ETFG does not act as a fiduciary or an investment advisor.  While ETFG has obtained information from sources they believe to be reliable, ETFG does not perform an audit or undertake any duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives.

This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.  Any opinions expressed herein are given in good faith, are subject to change without notice, and are only correct as of the stated date of their issue.  Prices, values, or income from any securities or investments mentioned in this report may fall against the interests of the investor and the investor may get back less than the amount invested.  Where an investment is described as being likely to yield income, please note that the amount of income that the investor will receive from such an investment may fluctuate.  Where an investment or security is denominated in a different currency to the investor's currency of reference, changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income.

Monday, August 17, 2020

Regaining Record Highs

Monday, August 17, 2020 - The S&P 500 has climbed nearly all the way out of its COVID-19 slump, finishing the week within half a percent of its February 19th record high. Meanwhile, for the first time since March, initial weekly jobless claims fell below 1 million - but storm clouds linger.

Washington remains deadlocked over another round of coronavirus stimulus. Loose monetary policy has some investors fearing the formation of another bubble. COVID-19 continues to ravage the nation, infecting more than 50,000 people daily, with a death toll that remains above 1,000 people per day, threatening fledgling attempts to reopen the U.S. economy.

For the week, the S&P 500 climbed 0.6%, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 1.8% and the Nasdaq Composite rising 0.1%.

Equity Exposure Report: COVID-19 has forced millions of people to transform their homes into offices. This week, we’ll learn more about which big box retailers capitalized, as Home Depot, Lowe’s, Walmart and Target are all due to release earnings reports. These are the ETFs weighted most heavily with Home Depot stock: Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY), VanEck Vectors Retail ETF (RTH), iShares U.S. Consumer Services ETF (IYC), iShares Evolved U.S. Discretionary Spending ETF (IEDI), and Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF (VCR).

ETFG Quant Movers - The ETFs that had the largest weekly change in their respective, overall ETFG Quant ratings.

ETFG Quant Winners: This week, we highlight the biggest increases in the ETFG Quant Behavioral model. The top 5 Behavioral gainers were: Innovator IBD ETF Leaders ETF (LDRS), JPMorgan Long/Short ETF (JPLS), Xtrackers FTSE Developed ex US Comprehensive Factor ETF (DEEF), AdvisorShares Vice ETF (ACT), and SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI).

ETFG Quant Losers: The biggest decreases in the ETFG Quant Behavioral model this week were charted by: Schwab Fundamental Emerging Markets Large Company Index ETF (FNDE), iShares Evolved U.S. Technology ETF (IETC), VanEck Vectors Coal ETF (KOL), Invesco FTSE RAFI Developed Markets ex-U.S. ETF (PXF), and SPDR Solactive Germany ETF (ZDEU).

ETFG Weekly Select List: The five most highly rated ETFs per Sector, Geographic Region and Strategy as ranked by the ETFG Quant model.

This week, we focus on Large Cap ETFs, which were led by: Invesco S&P 500 High Beta ETF (SPHB), Forensic Accounting Long-Short ETF (FLAG), ALPS Sector Dividend Dogs ETF (SDOG), Invesco Russell Top 200 Pure Growth ETF (PXLG), and ProShares S&P 500 Aristocrats ETF (NOBL).

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_______________________________________________________

Assumptions, opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice.  ETF Global LLC (“ETFG”) and its affiliates and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (collectively ETFG Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, adequacy or timeliness of any information, including ratings and rankings and are not responsible for errors and omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information and ETFG Parties shall have no liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions therein, regardless of the cause, or for the results obtained from the use of such information. ETFG PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, SUITABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE.

 In no event shall ETFG Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs) in connection with any use of the information contained in this document even if advised of the possibility of such damages.

ETFG ratings and rankings are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions. ETFG ratings and rankings should not be relied on when making any investment or other business decision.  ETFG’s opinions and analyses do not address the suitability of any security.  ETFG does not act as a fiduciary or an investment advisor.  While ETFG has obtained information from sources they believe to be reliable, ETFG does not perform an audit or undertake any duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives.

This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.  Any opinions expressed herein are given in good faith, are subject to change without notice, and are only correct as of the stated date of their issue.  Prices, values, or income from any securities or investments mentioned in this report may fall against the interests of the investor and the investor may get back less than the amount invested.  Where an investment is described as being likely to yield income, please note that the amount of income that the investor will receive from such an investment may fluctuate.  Where an investment or security is denominated in a different currency to the investor's currency of reference, changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income.

Monday, August 10, 2020

New Parameters

Monday, August 10, 2020 -- Nearly 1.2 million Americans lost their jobs last week. In normal times, that figure may have resulted in big stock sell offs and emergency action from Congress. In the COVID-19 era, investors cheered the 7-figure weekly job loss as less dire than expected, even as lawmakers left Washington unable to agree on another round of stimulus.

All three major indices were up for the week, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbing 3.8%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each gained 2.5%.

Prior to 2020, the record high for weekly unemployment claims was 695,000, way back in 1982. COVID-19 has thrown all that out the window. This week’s 1.2 million job losses were actually the fewest recorded since early March, continuing a modest recent trend of falling unemployment claims. In the prior week, 1.4 million Americans filed for unemployment. An estimated 30 million people are currently unemployed in the U.S. Nonetheless, Congress left for summer recess on Friday, without coming to an agreement on extending unemployment benefits or providing any other economic stimulus.

ETFG Quant Movers - The ETFs that had the largest weekly change in their respective, overall ETFG Quant ratings.

ETFG Quant Winners: This week, we highlight the biggest increases in the ETFG Quant Fundamental model. Topping the list are Global X SuperIncome Preferred ETF (SPFF), ETRACS Linked to the Wells Fargo Business Development Company Index ETN (BDCS), ETRACS Alerian MLP Index ETN (AMU), iPath S&P MLP ETN (IMLP), and iShares US Preferred Stock ETF (PFF).

ETFG Quant Losers: The ETFs with the biggest decreases in their ETFG Quant Fundamental Score this week were the Invesco Preferred ETF (PGX), VanEck Vectors Gaming ETF (BJK), SPDR Wells Fargo Preferred Stock ETF (PSK), ELEMENTS SPECTRUM ETN (EEH), and SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI).

ETFG Weekly Select List - The five most highly rated ETFs per Sector, Geographic Region and Strategy as ranked by the ETFG Quant model.

The Energy Sector has charted strong growth in recent days. This week, we’re focusing on the 5 Energy ETFs with the highest ratings from our ETFG Quant model. They are: Alerian MLP ETF (AMLP), Invesco Dynamic Energy Exploration & Production ETF (PXE), VanEck Vectors Unconventional Oil & Gas ETF (FRAK), iShares U.S. Energy ETF (IYE), and Invesco Dynamic Oil & Gas Services ETF (PXJ).

Thanks for reading ETF Global Perspectives!

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_______________________________________________________

Assumptions, opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice.  ETF Global LLC (“ETFG”) and its affiliates and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (collectively ETFG Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, adequacy or timeliness of any information, including ratings and rankings and are not responsible for errors and omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information and ETFG Parties shall have no liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions therein, regardless of the cause, or for the results obtained from the use of such information. ETFG PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, SUITABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE.

In no event shall ETFG Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs) in connection with any use of the information contained in this document even if advised of the possibility of such damages.

ETFG ratings and rankings are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions. ETFG ratings and rankings should not be relied on when making any investment or other business decision.  ETFG’s opinions and analyses do not address the suitability of any security.  ETFG does not act as a fiduciary or an investment advisor.  While ETFG has obtained information from sources they believe to be reliable, ETFG does not perform an audit or undertake any duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives.

This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.  Any opinions expressed herein are given in good faith, are subject to change without notice, and are only correct as of the stated date of their issue.  Prices, values, or income from any securities or investments mentioned in this report may fall against the interests of the investor and the investor may get back less than the amount invested.  Where an investment is described as being likely to yield income, please note that the amount of income that the investor will receive from such an investment may fluctuate.  Where an investment or security is denominated in a different currency to the investor's currency of reference, changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income.

Monday, August 3, 2020

Tech Leads the Way

Monday, August 3, 2020 – All three major indexes closed out July with a fourth straight month of gains, powered by the ever-growing influence of technology companies. Despite sharpening scrutiny over their size and influence, tech titans Apple, Facebook, Google and Amazon delivered another quarter of consensus-beating sales and profits. Their results and subsequent share price rises came after facing heavy criticism from Congress over their business practices and market dominance, once again affirming the resiliency of their operations and advantageous positioning as the pandemic-era accelerates our reliance on digital services.

Despite tech's stalwart performance, the economic picture remains decidedly mixed. Although the indexes finished with gains, this week's performance was choppy as the Fed issued another dour outlook, the U.S. experienced a record quarterly economic contraction, unemployment claims increased, coronavirus cases rose, non-tech earnings were gloomy and Congress failed to strike a follow-up coronavirus stimulus package before jobless benefits expired on Friday.

Facing this uneven economic backdrop, the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended the week down 0.2% and up 1.7% and 3.7% respectively. The key underpinnings of the market - monetary policy, corporate earnings and economic activity remain largely supportive for further market gains. Yet these gains are extremely tenuous and political uncertainties and the unabating coronavirus will render volatile market conditions for the foreseeable future.

ETFG Weekly Select List - The five most highly rated ETFs per Sector, Geographic Region and Strategy as ranked by the ETFG Quant model.

With the technology sector continuing to provide resiliency and market leadership, we'd like to feature their top-rated ETFs according to our Quant model. As of Friday, our highest rated technology ETFs are the ALPS Disruptive Technologies ETF (DTEC), First Trust Nasdaq Smartphone Index Fund (FONE), ETFMG Drone Economy Strategy ETF (IFLY), SPDR S&P Technology Hardware ETF (XTH) and Invesco S&P Equal Weight Technology ETF (RYT).

Thanks for reading ETF Global Perspectives!

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_______________________________________________________

Assumptions, opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice.  ETF Global LLC (“ETFG”) and its affiliates and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (collectively ETFG Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, adequacy or timeliness of any information, including ratings and rankings and are not responsible for errors and omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information and ETFG Parties shall have no liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions therein, regardless of the cause, or for the results obtained from the use of such information. ETFG PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, SUITABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE.

In no event shall ETFG Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs) in connection with any use of the information contained in this document even if advised of the possibility of such damages.

ETFG ratings and rankings are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions. ETFG ratings and rankings should not be relied on when making any investment or other business decision.  ETFG’s opinions and analyses do not address the suitability of any security.  ETFG does not act as a fiduciary or an investment advisor.  While ETFG has obtained information from sources they believe to be reliable, ETFG does not perform an audit or undertake any duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives.

 This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.  Any opinions expressed herein are given in good faith, are subject to change without notice, and are only correct as of the stated date of their issue.  Prices, values, or income from any securities or investments mentioned in this report may fall against the interests of the investor and the investor may get back less than the amount invested.  Where an investment is described as being likely to yield income, please note that the amount of income that the investor will receive from such an investment may fluctuate.  Where an investment or security is denominated in a different currency to the investor's currency of reference, changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income.