Monday, October 26, 2020

Momentum Shift

Monday, October 26, 2020 – Unsurprisingly after three consecutive weekly advances, stocks declined modestly last week and the major benchmarks ended mixed. The S&P 500 declined 0.5% while the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.1% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.0%. The Russell 2000 and the S&P Mid Cap 400 finished in positive territory with a gain of 0.4% and 0.6% respectively. Looking at the S&P 500 sectors, the technology (-2.2%) sector fared the worst, while the communication services (+2.1%) sector fared the best. The financial (+1.0%), utilities (+1.2%) and energy (+0.5%) sectors also closed higher as the 10-yr yield rose to 0.84%.

Turning to ETFs, total assets in U.S. listed ETPs grew modestly and saw a net inflow of $6.7 billion which was split even among the equity and fixed income asset classes. SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) topped the list, with a total gain of around $3.8 billion and Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) saw a net inflow of approximately $1.5 billion. They were followed in order by JPMorgan BetaBuilders U.S. Mid Cap Equity ETF (BBMC), Vanguard Total International Stock ETF (VXUS) and iShares ESG MSCI EM ETF (ESGE). These ETFs brought in approximately $1 billion, $851 million and $555 million respectively in net creations. In weekly outflows, we saw Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) drop over $2 billion, despite a strong showing last week and First Trust Capital Strength ETF (FTCS) had $1.5 billion in net redemptions.

ETFG Quant Movers - Those ETFs who have had the largest weekly change in their respective, overall ETFG Quant ratings.

ETFG Quant Winners: The top five gainers in their ETFG Quant Total Score were WisdomTree China ex-State-Owned Enterprises Fund (CXSE), iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF (IVW), Invesco DWA Tactical Sector Rotation ETF (DWTR), CSOP MSCI China A International Hedged ETF (CNHX), and Reality Shares DIVCON Dividend Defender ETF (DFND). Each ETP added between 21 and 12 points to their overall score mostly due to fundamental factors.

ETFG Quant Losers: Honorable mentions in the loser category were Loncar Cancer Immunotherapy ETF (CNCR), FI Enhanced Global High Yield Exchange Traded Notes (FIEG), Principal Healthcare Innovators Index ETF (BTEC), Insightshares Patriotic Employers ETF (HONR) and Large Cap Growth Index-Linked Exchange Traded Notes due 2028 (FRLG). The reasons for the drop in quant scores can also be traced to mostly fundamental factors.

ETFG Weekly Select List - The five most highly rated ETFs per Sector, Geographic Region and Strategy as ranked by the ETFG Quant model.

Considering the sector’s substantial losses, we highlight the top ETFs within the Technology sector in order to help readers diligence potential opportunities. ALPS Disruptive Technologies ETF (DTEC) moved one spot to claim the 1st position.

Newcomers to the ETFG Weekly Select List this week claimed 2nd, 3rd and 4th which included in order First Trust Nasdaq Smartphone Index Fund (FONE), ETFMG Prime Mobile Payments ETF (IPAY) and SPDR S&P Internet ETF (XWEB). SPDR S&P Technology Hardware ETF (XTH) maintained a 5th place position this week.

Thank you for reading ETF Global Perspectives!

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_______________________________________________________

Assumptions, opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice.  ETF Global LLC (“ETFG”) and its affiliates and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (collectively ETFG Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, adequacy or timeliness of any information, including ratings and rankings and are not responsible for errors and omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information and ETFG Parties shall have no liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions therein, regardless of the cause, or for the results obtained from the use of such information. ETFG PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, SUITABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE.

In no event shall ETFG Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs) in connection with any use of the information contained in this document even if advised of the possibility of such damages.

ETFG ratings and rankings are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions. ETFG ratings and rankings should not be relied on when making any investment or other business decision.  ETFG’s opinions and analyses do not address the suitability of any security.  ETFG does not act as a fiduciary or an investment advisor.  While ETFG has obtained information from sources they believe to be reliable, ETFG does not perform an audit or undertake any duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives.

This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.  Any opinions expressed herein are given in good faith, are subject to change without notice, and are only correct as of the stated date of their issue.  Prices, values, or income from any securities or investments mentioned in this report may fall against the interests of the investor and the investor may get back less than the amount invested.  Where an investment is described as being likely to yield income, please note that the amount of income that the investor will receive from such an investment may fluctuate.  Where an investment or security is denominated in a different currency to the investor's currency of reference, changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income.

Monday, October 19, 2020

Market Resilience

Monday, October 19, 2020 – The stock market oscillated between positive and negative territory this past week as the large-cap benchmarks narrowly squeezed out a third consecutive week of gains. Investors seemed encouraged from a positive U.S. retail sales report that showed consumer spending rose in September despite the lack of renewed aid from Washington. Also, several of the major U.S. banks that kicked off the quarterly earnings season reported strong third-quarter results, boosted by trading and investment banking revenue. Within the S&P 500 Index, industrials and utilities outperformed, while financials recorded minor losses overall. The real estate sector was also weak.

In looking at ETF flows, the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) topped the list, with a total gain of approximately $5.2 billion. The technology heavy fund was a major contributor this week, powering U.S.-listed ETF inflows to $18.5 billion. Also on the top five inflow list was First Trust Capital Strength ETF (FTCS), Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI), iShares MBS ETF (MBB) and Vanguard Total International Stock ETF (VXUS). In order these ETFs brought in $1.6 billion, $1.4 billion, $1.2 billion and $1.1 billion respectively in net creations. In weekly outflows, we saw iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA) and SPDR Bloomberg Barclays High Yield Bond ETF (JNK) drop over $1 billion and $600 million respectively in redemptions.

ETFG Quant Movers - Those ETFs who have had the largest weekly change in their respective, overall ETFG Quant ratings.

ETFG Quant Winners: The top five gainers in their ETFG Quant Total Score were iPath S&P MLP ETN (IMLP), Innovator IBD ETF Leaders ETF (LDRS), Franklin FTSE Europe Hedged ETF (FLEH), Global X MSCI SuperDividend Emerging Markets ETF (SDEM), and AdvisorShares Vice ETF (ACT). Each ETP added around 10 points to their overall Quant.

ETFG Quant Losers: Honorable mentions in the loser category were ELEMENTS SPECTRUM ETN (EEH), First Trust Preferred Securities and Income ETF (FPE), Schwab Fundamental Emerging Markets Large Company Index ETF (FNDE), iShares MSCI Finland ETF (EFNL) and SPDR Solactive Germany ETF (ZDEU). The reasons for the drop in quant scores can be traced to mostly behavioral factors.

ETFG Weekly Select List - The five most highly rated ETFs per Sector, Geographic Region and Strategy as ranked by the ETFG Quant model.

Considering the sector’s substantial losses, we highlight the top ETFs within the Industrials sector in this week’s Select List. SPDR S&P Transportation ETF (XTN) held on to the 1st position while First Trust RBA American Industrial Renaissance ETF (AIRR) moved from the 4th position to claim 2nd this week.

Those two funds were followed by 3 newcomers which are in order, Invesco Dynamic Building & Construction ETF (PXB), iShares Transportation Average ETF (IYT) and First Trust Industrials/Producer Durables AlphaDEX Fund (FXR).

Thank you for reading ETF Global Perspectives!

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_______________________________________________________

Assumptions, opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice.  ETF Global LLC (“ETFG”) and its affiliates and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (collectively ETFG Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, adequacy or timeliness of any information, including ratings and rankings and are not responsible for errors and omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information and ETFG Parties shall have no liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions therein, regardless of the cause, or for the results obtained from the use of such information. ETFG PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, SUITABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE.

In no event shall ETFG Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs) in connection with any use of the information contained in this document even if advised of the possibility of such damages.

ETFG ratings and rankings are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions. ETFG ratings and rankings should not be relied on when making any investment or other business decision.  ETFG’s opinions and analyses do not address the suitability of any security.  ETFG does not act as a fiduciary or an investment advisor.  While ETFG has obtained information from sources they believe to be reliable, ETFG does not perform an audit or undertake any duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives.

This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.  Any opinions expressed herein are given in good faith, are subject to change without notice, and are only correct as of the stated date of their issue.  Prices, values, or income from any securities or investments mentioned in this report may fall against the interests of the investor and the investor may get back less than the amount invested.  Where an investment is described as being likely to yield income, please note that the amount of income that the investor will receive from such an investment may fluctuate.  Where an investment or security is denominated in a different currency to the investor's currency of reference, changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income.

Wednesday, October 14, 2020

4Q 2020 Rebalance – ETF Global® Dynamic Model Portfolios

Wednesday, October 14, 2020With less than 30 days until one of the most pivotal presidential elections in a generation, confusion would seem to be the reigning power in our country. It is no wonder that equities have started to drift. Equities started the third quarter so strong that even the perpetually lagging Dow Jones Industrial Average was almost back to its pre-COVID highs before the September sell-off sent them reeling. Now investors are facing a sea of red in their heat maps as even the supposedly “defensive” FAANG stocks have suffered double digit losses over the past month and only interest rate sensitive utilities show any green shoots. Talk about a land of confusion.

Confusion may be king, but the start of another quarter at ETF Global means it’s time to turn to our analytically driven Quantitative Model to update our ETFG Dynamic Model Portfolios, including all 4 of the base portfolios and the 8 “tilts.”  While the recent selloff in the S&P 500 shows that larger-cap stocks are struggling for direction, our ETFG Quant model still favors small-cap funds as it has for several quarters. That might not surprise our regular readers, but the reasons why those small-cap funds score so highly in our Quant Model might not be what you think.

The ETFG Model Portfolios began overweighting mid and small-cap funds in 2019 driven by their substantially higher fundamental scores relative to their larger-peers as well as their own historical price multiples. That is encapsulated in our ETFG Fundamental score, where if we reranked the fund universe available to our model portfolio strategies, only a handful of the 25 highest scoring ETFs would be large-cap funds. Those selections would have a distinct bias towards value stocks. Strategists will of course argue valuations hardly matter in a world of permanently low interest rates, but funds like the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) are trading just below all-time high multiples, offering little room for further expansion where small-cap funds are substantially below even more recent, short-term averages.

Strong fundamental scores are only part of the reason the ETFG Quant Model favors small-cap funds, the continuing improvement in momentum along with higher values for our contrarian sentiment indicators has boosted their ETFG Behavioral scores as well!  Smaller-cap focused funds clearly underperformed over the past year, but 2020 has seen the beginnings of a shift with funds like the iShares S&P SmallCap 600 ETF (IJR) performing in line with SPY over the past three months. Price momentum is just one component, other new additions to the strategy like the iShares Russell 2000 Value ETF (IWN) find themselves included thanks to high short interest as well as an elevated put/call ratio which gives it a strong sentiment sub-score. 

Big changes are afoot within the International sleeve of our portfolio as the ETFG Quant model shifts both the average market cap and geographic location of its selections. The third quarter allocation was split between large and small-cap funds with a value focus as well as hedged and unhedged performance as the dollar weakened to levels not seen since 2018. With the dollar stabilizing, the model has shifted focus away from hedged products and towards larger names with the addition of the Invesco RAFI Strategic Developed ex-US ETF (ISDX) and Invesco S&P International Developed Low Volatility ETF (IDLV). Beyond a slight overweight to value stocks, the only other shared attribute of the two are large allocations to Japanese stocks, among the best international performers in the third quarter. Allocations to the Pacific Rim are boosted by the return of two country-specific funds offering enhanced exposure to stocks in South Korea and Singapore.

That shift towards larger value stocks in Asia also impacted our emerging market allocation with the addition of the Invesco RAFI Strategic Emerging Markets ETF (ISEM). The fund has a focus on high quality, large companies according to the Invesco website and need to have both a high size and quality score to make the portfolio. That might explain why the fund has nearly 60% of its assets in Chinese stocks, compared to 40% for the MSCI Emerging Market Index. Joining it is the WisdomTree Emerging Markets SmallCap Dividend Fund (DGS) whose focus on higher yielding Taiwanese names which seems to be the perfect counterbalance.

To learn more about our ETFG Model Portfolio strategy, please email us at sales@ETFG.com or call us at (212) 223-ETFG (3834).


Thanks for reading ETF Global Perspectives!
 
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_______________________________________________________

Assumptions, opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice.  ETF Global LLC (“ETFG”) and its affiliates and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (collectively ETFG Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, adequacy or timeliness of any information, including ratings and rankings and are not responsible for errors and omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information and ETFG Parties shall have no liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions therein, regardless of the cause, or for the results obtained from the use of such information. ETFG PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, SUITABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE.

In no event shall ETFG Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs) in connection with any use of the information contained in this document even if advised of the possibility of such damages.

ETFG ratings and rankings are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions. ETFG ratings and rankings should not be relied on when making any investment or other business decision.  ETFG’s opinions and analyses do not address the suitability of any security.  ETFG does not act as a fiduciary or an investment advisor.  While ETFG has obtained information from sources they believe to be reliable, ETFG does not perform an audit or undertake any duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives.

This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.  Any opinions expressed herein are given in good faith, are subject to change without notice, and are only correct as of the stated date of their issue.  Prices, values, or income from any securities or investments mentioned in this report may fall against the interests of the investor and the investor may get back less than the amount invested.  Where an investment is described as being likely to yield income, please note that the amount of income that the investor will receive from such an investment may fluctuate.  Where an investment or security is denominated in a different currency to the investor's currency of reference, changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income.

Monday, October 12, 2020

Early October Optimism

Monday, October 12, 2020 - U.S. Stocks rose Friday for the fifth consecutive day, with major benchmarks having their best week since the summer months. A second round of COVID stimulus talks helped fuel the markets rise. Talks stalled early in the week with President Trump seemingly walking away from the negotiating table, however a phone conversation between U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi sparked optimism.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 28,586.90, a gain of 3.3% on the week. The S&P 500 finished at 3,477.13, rising 3.8% and the Nasdaq Composite climbed to 11,579.94, a gain of 4.6% for the week.

ETFG Fund Flow Summary - In inflows, we saw a reversal of last week with investors moving their assets into some of the most popular index-based ETFs. IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF gained over $2.5B in AUM. That was followed by SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF gaining over $1.8B in assets on the week.

The biggest weekly outflows were iShares products. EFA, the iShares MSCI EAFE ETF lost over $730M in assets during the week. EFA is an International Multi-Cap Core ETF. The second biggest outflow of the week was just under $700M in assets from NEAR, the iShares Short Maturity Bond ETF.

ETFG Weekly Select List: The five most highly rated ETFs per Sector, Geographic Region and Strategy as ranked by the ETFG Quant model.

This week, we highlight some substantial movement in the Financials portion of the Select List. With another U.S. stimulus package on the horizon, it would be wise to keep a finger on the pulse of Index and Financial based ETFs.

Moving up two spots to claim the number one position this week is IAT, the iShares US Regional Banks ETF. Runner-up goes to Invesco KBW High Dividend Yield Financial ETF, KBWD, coming all the way up from the number five spot.

SPDR S&P Insurance ETF, KIE, fell one spot coming in third this week. Invesco KBW Regional Banking ETF, KBWR, and Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund, XLF, rounded out the top five, respectively.

Thanks for reading ETF Global Perspectives and we hope you have a great week!

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_______________________________________________________

Assumptions, opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice.  ETF Global LLC (“ETFG”) and its affiliates and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (collectively ETFG Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, adequacy or timeliness of any information, including ratings and rankings and are not responsible for errors and omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information and ETFG Parties shall have no liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions therein, regardless of the cause, or for the results obtained from the use of such information. ETFG PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, SUITABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE.

In no event shall ETFG Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs) in connection with any use of the information contained in this document even if advised of the possibility of such damages.

ETFG ratings and rankings are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions. ETFG ratings and rankings should not be relied on when making any investment or other business decision.  ETFG’s opinions and analyses do not address the suitability of any security.  ETFG does not act as a fiduciary or an investment advisor.  While ETFG has obtained information from sources they believe to be reliable, ETFG does not perform an audit or undertake any duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives.

This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.  Any opinions expressed herein are given in good faith, are subject to change without notice, and are only correct as of the stated date of their issue.  Prices, values, or income from any securities or investments mentioned in this report may fall against the interests of the investor and the investor may get back less than the amount invested.  Where an investment is described as being likely to yield income, please note that the amount of income that the investor will receive from such an investment may fluctuate.  Where an investment or security is denominated in a different currency to the investor's currency of reference, changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income. 

Monday, October 5, 2020

President Trump COVID Positive

Monday, October 5, 2020 - President Trump’s positive Covid-19 test results plus a disappointing US jobs report caused stocks around the world to tumble on Friday. The U.S. President is currently being treated at Walter Reed hospital for a virus that has already taken 200,000+ American lives. The US Jobs report, which was supposed to be the news of the day, was a disappointment as well. A total of 661,000 jobs were added during the month of September, however, economists were expecting well over 1 million. Despite all this negativity, the three major US indices still finished up on the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 27,682, a gain of 509 points, the S&P 500 finished at 3,348, a gain of nearly 165 points and the Nasdaq Composite rose to 11,075, a climb of 162 points.

In ETFs, we saw outflows from some of the most popular index-based ETFs. SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF, lost over $3.8B in assets during the week. That was followed by IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF which shed about $420M in assets. In inflows, we saw investors move their assets into some of the treasury bond ETFs. TLT, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, gained over $1.7B in AUM. The IEF, the iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF, also gained over $4.7M in assets. This all according to our ETFG Fund Flow Summary.

ETFG Weekly Select List: The five most highly rated ETFs per Sector, Geographic Region and Strategy as ranked by the ETFG Quant model.

This week we highlight some substantial movement in the Basic Materials portion of the Select List. The First Trust Materials AlphaDEX Fund leapfrogged the competition climbing from 5th to take the number one spot. In a nearly as impressive feat, moving from 4th to 2nd was the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF. The 3rd and 4th spots are held by the SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF and the Invesco S&P SmallCap Materials ETF, respectively. Rounding out the top 5 was the VanEck Vectors Steel Index Fund.

History shows October is typically the worst performing month during an election year, however, an overall positive third quarter has the potential to propel the market to strong year-end gains. The fourth quarter is often the best quarter of the year for stocks with average gains of 3.9%, this plus a potential second economic stimulus package should end 2020 on a much needed high note.

Thanks for reading ETF Global Perspectives and we hope you have a great week!

ETFG 21 Day Free Trial:  https://www.etfg.com/signup/quick

_______________________________________________________

Assumptions, opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice.  ETF Global LLC (“ETFG”) and its affiliates and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (collectively ETFG Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, adequacy or timeliness of any information, including ratings and rankings and are not responsible for errors and omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information and ETFG Parties shall have no liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions therein, regardless of the cause, or for the results obtained from the use of such information. ETFG PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, SUITABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE.

In no event shall ETFG Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs) in connection with any use of the information contained in this document even if advised of the possibility of such damages.

ETFG ratings and rankings are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions. ETFG ratings and rankings should not be relied on when making any investment or other business decision.  ETFG’s opinions and analyses do not address the suitability of any security.  ETFG does not act as a fiduciary or an investment advisor.  While ETFG has obtained information from sources they believe to be reliable, ETFG does not perform an audit or undertake any duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives.

This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.  Any opinions expressed herein are given in good faith, are subject to change without notice, and are only correct as of the stated date of their issue.  Prices, values, or income from any securities or investments mentioned in this report may fall against the interests of the investor and the investor may get back less than the amount invested.  Where an investment is described as being likely to yield income, please note that the amount of income that the investor will receive from such an investment may fluctuate.  Where an investment or security is denominated in a different currency to the investor's currency of reference, changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income.

Monday, September 28, 2020

Markets Dance to Covid Beat

Monday, September 28, 2020 - The S&P 500 finished down .63% while the Nasdaq Composite finished up by 1.11% on a strong Friday rally by the WFH stocks. The broad market as measured by the S&P 500 closed the week at 3,298.46. The NASDAQ Composite closed 10,913.56. The failure of congressional and administration negotiations to pass another round of stimulus by the Congress thru Friday did not help support the market, however weekend discussions on a leaner stimulus package will provide support to US equities if a deal is reached this week. Neither Party wants to be responsible for a bear market before the election.

The NASDAQ Composite broke its 4 week selloff Friday while the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 continued their downward trends. “Work from Home” themed stocks rose on reports that the Covid 19 virus was sweeping thru Europe in a strong second wave, leading to new lockdowns in the UK and other nations. Violent protests erupted against new lockdowns across Europe. Declining prices in Value Stocks such as Industrials, Energy (Oil and Gas), Financials and Basic Materials pushed down the broad-based indexes for a 4th straight week, resulting in indexes flirting with correction territory. Energy stocks took the prize, losing approximately 8.4% over the week. We still believe that given the strength in the IPO market, this weakness represents a correction in the bull market.  A vaccine cannot come fast enough for investors and businesses.

All these issues got us thinking on how far the correction could go? Apparently, further as some brokerage firms increased customer margin requirements Friday. Last week, High Yield spreads widened over Investment Grade by 40 bps in an apparent sign that investors are concerned about a slowing economy and weaker corporate cash flows. The much-hyped notion of a V Shaped Recovery appears to have been replaced by the K Shaped narrative. Virus resurgence, a contested November election and a stalled economy resulted in investors repricing risk assets in September. Given the upcoming elections in November, investors and traders should be especially ready to take advantage of volatility on both the down and upside.

As of early Monday morning, most overseas markets are up.  However, investors will be focusing on continued weakness of oil prices and concerns that the virus resurgence will continue to weaken the global economy and resulting social instability.  There are many ETFs which track risk assets.  These can be found in our ETFG Screener and the ETFG Weekly Select List.

To best support the ETF selection process, The ETFG Weekly Select List highlights the 5 most highly rated ETFs per Sector, Geographic Region, Theme, and Strategy as ranked by the ETFG Quant model. 

We suggest keeping a mindful eye on tools like our Select List and Risk and Reward Ratings that can be used to evaluate the vast set of opportunities in the ETF marketplace. Today’s market realities require a new approach to macro investing, one in which individual investors now have access to tools via ETPs to customize risk and return profiles in their portfolios. Use our Scanner to find those funds.

Thank you for reading the ETF Global Perspectives!

ETFG 21 Day Free Trial:  https://www.etfg.com/signup/quick 

_______________________________________________________

Assumptions, opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice.  ETF Global LLC (“ETFG”) and its affiliates and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (collectively ETFG Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, adequacy or timeliness of any information, including ratings and rankings and are not responsible for errors and omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information and ETFG Parties shall have no liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions therein, regardless of the cause, or for the results obtained from the use of such information. ETFG PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, SUITABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE.

In no event shall ETFG Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs) in connection with any use of the information contained in this document even if advised of the possibility of such damages.

ETFG ratings and rankings are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions. ETFG ratings and rankings should not be relied on when making any investment or other business decision.  ETFG’s opinions and analyses do not address the suitability of any security.  ETFG does not act as a fiduciary or an investment advisor.  While ETFG has obtained information from sources they believe to be reliable, ETFG does not perform an audit or undertake any duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives.

This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.  Any opinions expressed herein are given in good faith, are subject to change without notice, and are only correct as of the stated date of their issue.  Prices, values, or income from any securities or investments mentioned in this report may fall against the interests of the investor and the investor may get back less than the amount invested.  Where an investment is described as being likely to yield income, please note that the amount of income that the investor will receive from such an investment may fluctuate.  Where an investment or security is denominated in a different currency to the investor's currency of reference, changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income.

Monday, September 21, 2020

Tech Leaders Weaken With Market Rotation

Monday, September 21, 2020US markets closed down last week with the S&P 500 finishing down .64% and the Nasdaq Composite .56%. The broad market, as measured by the S&P 500, closed the week at 3,319.47. The NASDAQ Composite closed at 10,793.28. Nevertheless, the indexes hide the pain felt by investors in the hot tech stocks, some of which got hit with corrections of more than 5% in a single day.

The NASDAQ Composite and S&P 500 continued their 3 week sell off as the US Equity Markets continued their rotation into so called Value Stocks i.e., cyclicals, energy and to some degree less popular names that do not fit in the Work From Home theme. Encouraging reports on COVID 19 vaccine progress were not enough to support the tech sector. Commentary by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell that the Federal Reserve plans to keep its overnight fed funds rate target at 0 -.25% until 2023 and continue to flood the system with liquidity until the unemployment level returns to the 3.5% also weren’t enough to stem the tide. The NASDAQ 100 ETF, QQQ, on Thursday hit correction territory as it dropped 10.7% from its closing high on Sept 2nd.

Despite the softening of the lead FAANG tech names, investors continue to show strength in Tech IPOs as SnowFlake more than doubled on its first day of trading at a valuation of 100x Sales. If you believe that the market bottomed this year in March, then this could be evidence of a young bull market. We, however, are not so sure that the worst is over.

All these issues got us thinking about seasonality. As we enter the Fall, September and October are traditionally characterized by market turbulence particularly after coming out of August’s strong performance. Market leadership rotations are typically accompanied by sudden and strong corrections to the stocks of the day. This is what we are experiencing. We note that for the week ended September 6th, outflows from money market funds were approximately $50.5 Billion while ETFs added some $9.9 Billion split between equity and fixed income ETFs. Investors do not add funds to stocks if they believe they are going down.

Given the upcoming elections in November, investors and traders should be especially ready to take advantage of volatility on both the down and upside.

As of early morning today, overseas markets are weak with investors focusing on weakening oil markets and concerns that the virus resurgence will continue to weaken the global economy. Traders and active investors can use ETFs to take advantage of real-time market volatility – both up and down! 

To take advantage of this leadership rotation, we suggest looking at our ETFG Weekly Select List. To best support the ETF selection process, The ETFG Weekly Select List highlights the 5 most highly rated ETFs per Sector, Geographic Region and Strategy as ranked by the ETFG Quant model. 

We suggest keeping a mindful eye on tools like our Select List and Risk and Reward Ratings that can be used to evaluate the vast set of opportunities in the ETF marketplace. Today’s market realities require a new approach to macro investing, one in which individual investors now have access to tools via ETPs to customize risk and return profiles in their portfolios. Use our Scanner to find those funds.

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