Monday, August 28, 2017 –
The lazy Dog Days of Summer have been anything but for investors. Stock indexes were on the road to
recovery early last week possibly from the celestial effects of the Solar
Eclipse that captivated the nation’s attention. The market then
sold off on concerns of the departure of key White House staff but nevertheless
ended the week on a slightly higher level. US Benchmarks ended up with the
S&P 500 closing at +.72% for the week to 2,443.05 and the Russell 2000
rising 1.45% to 1,377.45. The tech heavy Nasdaq Composite rose in line with the
S&P 500 by a +.79% to 6,265.64. Investors continue to bet on Tax Reform
this Fall and continued deregulation by Presidential directives.
Sunday night it became apparent
that the flooding from the Hurricane Harvey that hit Southeast Texas over the
weekend was “unprecedented and all impacts are unknown and beyond anything
experienced” according to the US National Weather Service. Consequently,
potential loss of life, dislocations of people, property and infrastructure damage
will likely be significant as those from Katrina and Sandy. The direct and
collateral damage of Harvey will not be known until later this week. Financial
Markets will reflect the consequences of the damage particularly around the
Houston Metropolitan Area and coastal gas refineries.
While September was already
looking to be an exciting month to watch cable news with political haggling
over raising the deficit ceiling and threats of government shutdowns – which have
proven to be short-lived trading opportunities, this time is likely to be different thanks to Harvey.
Why? First, the reserves of the
national flood insurance fund are likely to prove inadequate to cover claims. This
will open the debate of increasing deficit spending to bail out the fund. This is likely to fan the debate of
climate change and whether taxpayers should bear the bill of rebuilding residences
and businesses along the coastal areas. Also, expect damage to crops and
refineries all of which will take the form of higher soft commodity and gas
prices – as early as Monday morning. So look for the inflation rate to increase,
but not for long hopeful reasons like wage inflation. The scale necessary to
rebuild the region is likely to make the Fed think twice about rising interest
rates due to the short term regional slowdown in economic activity resulting from
the damages due to Harvey.
A search of “politics of natural
disasters” brings up a considerable number of studies both in the US and
internationally of how unforeseen disasters have a way of affecting politics, in
particular, having negative consequences for those in office. We need to look
no further than the effect of Katrina on the Bush Administration although Trump
appears to be trying to get ahead of the situation.
The need to authorize spending for
a big infrastructure projects should become inevitable as there will be plenty
of “shovel ready projects.” Discussion about tax cuts was on the September
agenda but could get pushed back in wake of the need to immediately address
rebuilding concerns. Ready your popcorn and favorite beverage and tune into
your favorite cable news channel to see how this unfolds.
We continue to favor the Reflation
trade on the expectations of tax cuts and big infrastructure spending. If
anything, the damage from Harvey will eventually accelerate this trajectory if
reason prevails in Washington. The continued decline of the USD from its highs
since December could give investors with foreign ETFs a double reward, rising
equity prices and an FX kicker as well.
Our ETFG Quant Score list based upon Friday’s closing data does not yet
reflect the effects of Harvey, so we suggest checking the daily movers list as
the week progresses for new ratings. We favor infrastructure plays, energy and
foreign markets.
Looking at our Weekly % Movers list, we see IEQ and
HAP as energy/commodity plays moving up in ratings as well as a good selection
of foreign ETFs such as BRAQ, EUFN, EWT, and QEMM. Looking at our Select List, for Energy ERGF,
EMLP, CRAK, MLPA, PXI are attractive in ratings in their respective sector. Others
we think are likely to benefit are XTN, INDF in the Transportation Sector, MATF
and JHMA in Materials, INDF in Industrials and FTRJ, FTAG, NFRA and TOLR in
Natural Resources.
We suggest looking over the Quant
Movers % Daily when big events occur that affect financial markets to zero in
on attractive plays and sudden changes in our ratings outlook.
Thank you for reading ETF Global Perspectives.
_____________________________________________________________
Assumptions,
opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material
and are subject to change without notice. ETF Global LLC (“ETFG”) and its
affiliates and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers,
shareholders, employees or agents (collectively ETFG Parties) do not guarantee
the accuracy, completeness, adequacy or timeliness of any information, including
ratings and rankings and are not responsible for errors and omissions or for
the results obtained from the use of such information and ETFG Parties shall
have no liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions therein,
regardless of the cause, or for the results obtained from the use of such
information. ETFG PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES,
INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, SUITABILITY OR
FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE. In no event shall ETFG Parties
be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary,
compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses,
legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost
profits and opportunity costs) in connection with any use of the information
contained in this document even if advised of the possibility of such damages.
ETFG ratings and rankings are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions. ETFG ratings and rankings should not be relied on when making any investment or other business decision. ETFG’s opinions and analyses do not address the suitability of any security. ETFG does not act as a fiduciary or an investment advisor. While ETFG has obtained information from sources they believe to be reliable, ETFG does not perform an audit or undertake any duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives.
ETFG ratings and rankings are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions. ETFG ratings and rankings should not be relied on when making any investment or other business decision. ETFG’s opinions and analyses do not address the suitability of any security. ETFG does not act as a fiduciary or an investment advisor. While ETFG has obtained information from sources they believe to be reliable, ETFG does not perform an audit or undertake any duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives.
This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors. Any opinions expressed herein are given in good faith, are subject to change without notice, and are only correct as of the stated date of their issue. Prices, values, or income from any securities or investments mentioned in this report may fall against the interests of the investor and the investor may get back less than the amount invested. Where an investment is described as being likely to yield income, please note that the amount of income that the investor will receive from such an investment may fluctuate. Where an investment or security is denominated in a different currency to the investor's currency of reference, changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of or from that investment to the investor.