Despite all the worrisome news headlines about
which we wrote, US Equity and Global Markets climbed their climb last week. The
broad market S&P 500 closed the week and hit a high of 3240.02. The NASDAQ Composite
broke thru 9000 to close at 9006.62. Both indexes hitting new all-time highs. In
Europe, the STOXX Europe 600 hit an all-time high – up almost 25% YTD. One item
that grabbed our attention was the drop in negative yielding bonds since August
til now -- $17 trillion down to $11 trillion.
Our readers know our thoughts on the consequences of negative interest
rates, so we view this development as a big positive.
While investors are betting on an economic
pickup, a trade deal with China and subsequently, higher corporate earnings, we
started to think about what the new decade of 2020 might mean for investors....
We expect more volatility in US Markets in
2020. Why? We see a highly polarized election in the US and suspect investors
to be sensitive to ever shifting election poll numbers especially the first
half of the year. Secondly, structural shifts in the marketplace with limited
liquidity from market makers and the newly instituted “free trading” of stocks
and ETFs from the retail electronic brokers will encourage more short-term
trading in and out of positions due to nearly no frictional costs except tax
liabilities. Despite an apparent positive for investors, a friend and an old
sage of Wall Street observed “free is usually not good.” We agree in this case.
We note an interesting commentary by Richard
Bernstein who sees a trend toward inflation and with that higher interest
rates. Quantitative easing, increased use of fiscal policy (i.e., tax cuts,
increased military (i.e., space) spending, rising compensation for low paid
workers and increased tariffs on goods generally are inflationary, even if the
increased costs have not yet shown up in official statistics. All this favors
emerging markets and gold according to Bernstein. We agree. In fact, Emerging
Markets have had meager returns for investors over the past decade compared to
the S&P 500.
This got us thinking about the US Dollar and
its dominance in international finance and trade. The US has long enjoyed the
benefits since WWII of the role that the US Dollar has offered in borrowing to
finance the trade and budget deficits. In the new multipolar world, its
dominance is going to be chipped away by the EU, Russia and of course China. The
consequence of this will be higher interest rates for US Dollar borrowers
including the US Treasury. Our readers know from previous writings what we
believe the consequences will be for investors - a shift to higher rates. So,
stay turned in the coming decade.
A word about the world of ETFs in the next
decade. Look for ETFs to become the dominant investment vehicle worldwide. In
the US, the long-awaited ETF Rule and related guidelines recently issued by the
SEC will result in a streamlined and less costly process to issue “traditional
ETFs.” Investors should expect to see a rush by traditional mutual fund
companies to issue non-transparent, actively managed ETFs. Lastly, look for
large electronic BDs to offer investors fractional share ETF investing. This is
significant as it will be an assault on traditional providers in the 401K
market.
All of this creates opportunities for traders
and active investors who can use ETFs to take advantage of real-time market
volatility – both up and down! To take advantage of this, we suggest looking
at our ETFG Weekly
Select List.
To best support the ETF selection process, The
ETFG Weekly Select List highlights the 5 most highly rated ETFs per Sector,
Geographic Region and Strategy as ranked by the ETFG Quant model.
We suggest keeping a mindful eye on tools like
our Select List and Risk and Reward Ratings that can be used to evaluate the
vast set of opportunities in the ETF marketplace. Today’s market realities
require a new approach to macro investing, one in which individual investors
now have access to tools via ETPs to customize risk and return profiles in
their portfolios. Use our Scanner to find those funds.
Thanks for reading ETF
Global Perspectives!
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