In response to Brazil’s finance minster
calling US monetary policy “selfish”, Ben Bernanke told the annual IMF conference
that the emerging economies should embrace strong currencies that result from
easy US monetary policy. Money goes
where it’s treated best and although Quant doesn't measure a given country’s currency
rate, it has been capturing the hot money flows into the emerging markets. The iShares MSCI Emerging Index Fund (EEM) has been ranking highly for
months but not as high as today’s 3rd place. Large, liquid and from a strong sponsor gives
the fund a high 96.9 Quality Score to offset its meager 55.9 Global Theme
Score. Both account for 10% each of the Overall
Score which is driven more by Fundamentals which score a pretty good 78, and Behavioral
scoring at 72.3. Within the Behavioral
categories, the Technical scores are good but not great at 63.7 on the composite
where the short term has been gaining recently.
It’s the 80.9 Sentiment Score that stands out with a 99.8 Short Interest
score and an 87.6 Put Call score both implying the market may expect weak
exports to hamper the emerging economies.
The past decade should prove to anyone that a weak currency is not the
path to national greatness. Quant doesn't need such reminders, it follows the money
which these days means into emerging markets.
Another one to watch is the WisdomTree Emerging Markets High-Yielding
Fund (DEM) in 13th place today, its highest rank in several
months. WisdomTree specializes in fundamentally
weighted indices and this one scores an 80.4 in the Fundamental category. Improving technicals are also pushing it up
but again its Sentiment scores are higher than most with Put Call and Short Interest
scores implying market skepticism on the emerging markets. Interestingly, both funds have low volatility
scores which are scored differently from the Red Diamond Risk Ratings as Quant
looks at this category in a contrarian way. Volatility peaks are more common at bottoms
than tops. Deep Throat told Woodward and
Bernstein to follow the money and Quant is telling us that leads to the emerging
markets.
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