The Trump Rally marches on as US stocks continue to march
onto new highs with the S&P 500 up 0.069% for the week and the NASDAQ eking
out a rise of 0.12%. Nevertheless, no one piece of news seemed compelling
enough to continue the run of the bulls, unless of course one plans the
conquest and plundering of any one of the newly discovered planets this week by
NASA.
Controversies on the topics of immigration, health care
reform and invites to presidential press conferences dominated the week’s news
– hardly the news to support economic confidence. Fed policy increasingly
appears to be hawkish as well. Given this backdrop, could it be that the US
stock market must be driven by the animal spirits unleashed by the excitement
of the Trump Presidency? Sooner or later the excitement will die down and
investors will focus on Republican deliverables…time will tell.
All eyes will be focused this week on the President’s
first address to the Joint Session of Congress on Tuesday Night – coincidentally
Fat Tuesday. Investors will be looking for details on any fiscal policy
spending plans, tax reform, regulation relief, healthcare and of course the
usual social topics of border control, immigration, etc. While animal spirits maybe
driving the stock market, there appears to be a flight to quality by
international investors to Treasuries and Bunds – probably due to concerns on
the outcome of the French and Dutch elections.
Also, BREXIT appears to be heading to a harder landing than expected. We expect Greece debt to begin to reappear in
the headlines as well.
For investors betting on Reflation, Financials,
particularly Regional Banks, Materials, and Industrials continue to be good
bets. Looking at our ETFG Quant Movers List, we see a big move of over 31% for
SEA – a bet on Global Trade Recovery as well as continued strength in Commodities
and Energy with gains in FCG, PICK, XLE.
For pure play in Infrastructure, check TOLZ.
Thank you for
reading ETF Global Perspectives!
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