Monday, November 12, 2018

Inevitable Impact of the Midterm Elections

Monday November 12, 2018 – Happy Veterans Day (Observed) - Stocks finished higher for the second week in a row, gaining back some ground following October's sharp pullback.  For the week, the DJIA was up 718.47 points, the S&P 500 rose 57.95 points, while the NASDAQ Composite gained 49.91 points.  The U.S. Midterm Elections dominated the headlines for most of the week, with a few direct investment implications. The election outcome came in largely as expected, with Democrats in majority control of the House and Republicans maintaining the Senate. General expectations for a divided government lead to a legislative logjam in Washington in the next Congress, limiting policy actions to passing the budget with modest spending increases and raising the debt ceiling. Accordingly, expectations are for the stance of fiscal policy to gradually shift from a tailwind to neutral for growth, allowing for growth to gradually slow in coming quarters as fiscal stimulus fades and for the Fed to continue to gradually raise rates.

Under a split Congress, a modest infrastructure Bill might see bipartisan support, which could benefit Industrials and Materials. Technology is likely to benefit from the status quo investor view of peak growth and may resume the momentum seen for most of the year. As for Sectors which may be at risk, Communication Services may be hurt due to calls on both sides of Congress for increased regulation. Discretionary and Staples, two of the most labor-intensive sectors, may be at risk from potentially higher minimum wages which would put pressure on margins.

ETFG Quant Movers – those ETFs who have had the largest weekly change in their respective, overall ETFG Quant ratings:

ETFG Quant Winners: (UDBI) the Legg Mason US Diversified Core ETF jumped 15.31 points to 50.92, (SPXN) Proshares S&P 500 EX-Financials ETF rose 13.18 points to 58.48, (GHII) Invesco S&P High Income Infrastructure ETF climbed 12.41 points to 55.01, (TOLZ) DJ Brookfield Global Infrastructure ETF rose 10.14 points to 57.00, and finally (JXI) iShares Global Utilities ETF earned a solid gain of 9.22 moving its ETFG Quant rating to 56.08.

ETFG Quant Losers: (AFTY) the CSOP FTSE China A50 ETF was this week’s biggest loser, dropping 10.5 points to 39.39, (CSF) VictoryShares US Discovery Enhanced Volatility Wtd ETF dropped 9.1 points to 43.70, (CNYA) iShares MSCI China A ETF lost 9.07 moving down to 40.56, (DGS) WisdomTree Emerging Markets SmallCap Dividend Fund fell 8.83 to 51.66 and (CIZ) VictoryShares Developed Enhanced Volatility Wtd ETF rounds out this week’s bottom five moving down 7.5 points to 37.99.

ETFG Weekly Select List - the five most highly rated ETFs per Sector, Geographic Region and Strategy as ranked by the ETFG Quant model. Because of the Sector’s success on the 1 Week Quant Rating on the ETFG Heat Map, we’d like to highlight some substantial movement in the Energy Sector when comparing this week’s Select List to last. (EMLP) the First Trust North American Energy Infrastructure Fund jumped from third to first, (PXI) Invesco DWA Energy Momentum ETF dropped down one spot to third, and (EMLP) First Trust North American Energy Infrastructure Fund moved up to the top of the tables from third to first. The two new comers to the top five were (MLPA) Global X MLP ETF and (CRAK) VanEck Vectors Oil Refiners ETF at fourth and fifth respectively on the list.

Thanks for reading ETF Global Perspectives

ETFG 21 Day Free Trial:  https://www.etfg.com/signup/quick

______________________________________________________
Assumptions, opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice.  ETF Global LLC (“ETFG”) and its affiliates and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (collectively ETFG Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, adequacy or timeliness of any information, including ratings and rankings and are not responsible for errors and omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information and ETFG Parties shall have no liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions therein, regardless of the cause, or for the results obtained from the use of such information. ETFG PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, SUITABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE.  In no event shall ETFG Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs) in connection with any use of the information contained in this document even if advised of the possibility of such damages.

ETFG ratings and rankings are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions. ETFG ratings and rankings should not be relied on when making any investment or other business decision.  ETFG’s opinions and analyses do not address the suitability of any security.  ETFG does not act as a fiduciary or an investment advisor.  While ETFG has obtained information from sources they believe to be reliable, ETFG does not perform an audit or undertake any duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives.

This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.  Any opinions expressed herein are given in good faith, are subject to change without notice, and are only correct as of the stated date of their issue.  Prices, values, or income from any securities or investments mentioned in this report may fall against the interests of the investor and the investor may get back less than the amount invested.  Where an investment is described as being likely to yield income, please note that the amount of income that the investor will receive from such an investment may fluctuate.  Where an investment or security is denominated in a different currency to the investor's currency of reference, changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of or from that investment to the investor.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.