Monday, October 21, 2019 - October is a dangerous month for investors in the equity markets. Nevertheless, despite all the headlines concerning the ongoing trade war, a hard Brexit landing, new military confrontations in Syria, negative interest rates, global recession concerns, earnings reports, a cooling job market and economy, disorderly politics in Hong Kong, a slowing Chinese economy, US stocks shrugged off these worries and continued to climb. Indeed, the market’s resilience is most impressive.
The broad market, as measured by the S&P 500, closed last week very close to its all-time high of 3,025.86. Stocks seesawed and ended the week up with the large cap weighted S&P 500 closing at 2,986.20 and the broader NASDAQ Composite closing at 8,089.54 for a weekly gain of .54% and .40% respectively. These indexes are up YTD 19.12% and 21.92% respectively. Gold prices remained strong closing at $1,490 per troy oz and the US 10 Year Note was virtually unchanged to yield 1.747. We expect market volatility to continue for the foreseeable future, especially given October’s history. Astute investors will need to be on guard to see if the expected interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve happens on October 30th.
A number of themes caught our eye this week which we want to point out. First, today’s article from our friends at DataTrek, Nick Colas and Jessica Rabe suggest that we might be in the midst of the “Great Earnings Reset of 2019.” They observe that S&P 500 earnings are essentially stuck at zero and this is preventing markets from making new highs. For a sustainable rally, they postulate that we need a positive resolution to the US-China Trade War. We encourage you to look at their report on Linked-In.
On a bright note for those who follow contrarian indicators, last week’s cover story in Barron’s was on “Upside Down” Interest Rates i.e., the growing number of negatively yielding bonds around the globe. Media attention like this usually foretells the peak of the investment theme which leads us to think that interest rates may be on the verge of bottoming and starting an upward move. We also note that looking around the world, we sense there is a general move by the G7 to reflate using fiscal policy given that monetary policy has reached its limits to support the real economy. Last week’s better than expected earnings reports from JP Morgan and Citibank also indicated that the US economy might not be headed for recession.
Keep in mind, given such low rates, a slight upward move can create significant dislocations in not just fixed income markets, but real estate and other levered investments. Investors in hedge funds should take note. The US Dollar Index fell last week by 1.2% - a significant drop. Looking at the charts, the dollar index peaked in 2017 and has hovered in that area since. A weakened dollar would be a boost to Emerging Markets Debt and US Cyclicals which derive approximately 40% of their revenues from overseas.
Lastly, most disturbing was last week’s report by the IMF which warned that the global bond bubble has put the global financial system at risk as fixed income funds as vulnerable to liquidity shocks. This is primarily due to holdings of illiquid high yield investments which cannot be liquidated to meet shareholder redemptions. The canary in the coal mine indicator is the problem involving the liquidation of the Neil Woodford funds in Europe. The report provides ample scares just in time for Halloween.
This creates opportunities for traders and active investors who can use ETFs to take advantage of real-time market volatility - both up and down! To take advantage of this, we suggest looking at our ETFG Weekly Select List.
The ETFG Weekly Select List highlights the 5 most highly rated ETFs per Sector, Geographic Region and Strategy as ranked by the ETFG Quant model. We highlight a couple of ETFs that attracted our attention for investors given our views. In the Consumer Staples KXI is our top pick. JHMU is our top ranked in the Utility Sector.
We suggest keeping a mindful eye on tools like our Select List and Risk and Reward Ratings that can be used to evaluate the vast set of opportunities in the ETF marketplace. Today’s market realities require a new approach to macro investing, one in which individual investors now have access to tools via ETPs to customize risk and return profiles in their portfolios. Use our Scanner to find those funds.
Thanks for reading ETF Global Perspectives!
ETFG 21 Day Free Trial: https://www.etfg.com/signup/quick
Assumptions, opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. ETF Global LLC (“ETFG”) and its affiliates and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (collectively ETFG Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, adequacy or timeliness of any information, including ratings and rankings and are not responsible for errors and omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information and ETFG Parties shall have no liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions therein, regardless of the cause, or for the results obtained from the use of such information. ETFG PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, SUITABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE. In no event shall ETFG Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs) in connection with any use of the information contained in this document even if advised of the possibility of such damages.
ETFG ratings and rankings are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions. ETFG ratings and rankings should not be relied on when making any investment or other business decision. ETFG’s opinions and analyses do not address the suitability of any security. ETFG does not act as a fiduciary or an investment advisor. While ETFG has obtained information from sources they believe to be reliable, ETFG does not perform an audit or undertake any duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives.
This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors. Any opinions expressed herein are given in good faith, are subject to change without notice, and are only correct as of the stated date of their issue. Prices, values, or income from any securities or investments mentioned in this report may fall against the interests of the investor and the investor may get back less than the amount invested. Where an investment is described as being likely to yield income, please note that the amount of income that the investor will receive from such an investment may fluctuate. Where an investment or security is denominated in a different currency to the investor's currency of reference, changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of or from that investment to the investor